Pakistan ‘highly likely’ to see change in govt before 2029 elections, warns Fitch Solutions’ BMI report

BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has forecasted that Pakistan is “highly likely” to witness a change of government before the next parliamentary election scheduled for 2029.

“Pakistan’s next parliamentary election is scheduled for 2029. However, it is highly likely that the country will see a change of government before this date,” stated BMI in its Pakistan Country Risk Report for the fourth quarter of calendar year 2024.

“No Pakistani prime minister has ever completed a full five-year term in office,” it noted.

The report said political risk in Pakistan will remain highly elevated in 2024 and 2025.

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“While allies of opposition leader Imran Khan won a plurality of seats in the February 2024 election, Pakistan’s establishment parties managed to form another coalition government.

“This administration, lacking popular support, faces the daunting challenge of managing an economy that is beginning to recover following the 2022/23 crisis and addressing fragile security concerns.

“Further protests by Khan’s supporters – many of whom believe that their party has been targeted by Pakistan’s establishment – are likely,” read the report.

BMI gave Pakistan a score 60.6 out of 100 on its Political Risk Index.

Pakistan received a score of 42.8 on the Governance sub-component of BMI Political Risk Index.

The report noted that the Pakistani government faces the daunting challenge of managing disputes between the more liberal urban centers and the more religious rural areas, between Punjab and the smaller provinces, and between landowners and the large rural populace.

BMI gave a score of 76.6 out of 100 to Pakistan on the Society sub-component of its Political Risk Index.

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BMI said while the frequency and lethality of terrorist attacks in Pakistan has decreased significantly compared to a decade ago, militants still kill several hundred individuals annually.

“Attacks are concentrated in economically marginal areas, with relatively few targeting the larger cities.

“We believe tensions between Pakistan and India will remain elevated, though the deterrence provided by the two states’ nuclear arsenal means that an outbreak of war remains unlikely,” it said.

Pakistan received a 48.6 out of 100 on the Security sub-component of BMI’s Political Risk Index.

In its ‘Key View’, BMI also stated that despite several successful legal appeals, opposition leader Imran Khan will remain imprisoned for the foreseeable future.

“We expect that the PML(N)-led government will remain in power over the coming 18 months and will succeed in pushing through with IMF-mandated fiscal reforms.

“In the unlikely event that the government is replaced, the most likely alternative is a military-backed technocratic administration rather than fresh elections.”