BRASILIA: Most currencies in Latin America were poised for weekly losses on Friday, as a global tech outage, lower commodity prices and volatility around US elections curbed risk taking and investors assessed Brazil’s decision to freeze some spending.
MSCI’s index tracking Latam currencies was flat against the US dollar, but was set to end the week lower by 1.2%, its biggest weekly drop in over a month.
Copper producer Chile’s peso dipped 0.2%, and was on track for its biggest weekly drop in four months of nearly 4%.
Much of the losses were driven by copper prices that fell to a three-month low on disquiet about a weak Chinese economy and the lack of stimulus announcements.
Mexico’s peso edged up 0.4% after two straight days of losses. An initial estimate showed the region’s second-largest economy likely grew by 0.9% in June compared with the same month a year earlier.
Against the backdrop of sticky inflation, expectations of slowing economic activity and uncertainty about relations between the oil exporter and the US in the event of a second term for US presidential candidate Donald Trump, attention is on the local central bank’s monetary policy path.
“Banxico’s growing concerns over the slowdown in economic activity are likely to prove decisive at upcoming policy meetings. So, if a rate cut should fail to materialise in August, we think it would remain on the table for September,” said Wilson Ferrarezi, an economist at TS Lombard.
Brazil’s real inched 0.2% lower, while the yield on sovereign bonds rose between 15 and 24 basis points (bps).
On Thursday, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced plans to freeze 15 billion reais ($2.70 billion) from the 2024 budget as the government struggles to meet this year’s fiscal target.
The currency is among the biggest losers in the region, down nearly 13% year-to-date, as traders feared excessive government spending in the region’s largest economy.
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