ISLAMABAD: The total capital investment required to achieve universal electricity access in four provinces of Pakistan is estimated to be $13.3 billion, says the World Bank.
The bank in its latest report, “Pakistan Least-Cost Electrification Study”, noted that to achieve universal access to electricity by 2030, Pakistan will need to serve approximately 40 million total electricity connections.
The requirement to increase the number of electricity connections takes account of those who do not currently have a formal electricity connection plus population growth.
PSP in Discos: World Bank stresses setting up PIU
The new connections break down into two categories: those potential customers who are within 500 meters of the existing distribution grid, and those who are beyond 500 meters. Grid densification is the least-cost option for 53 percent of those without electricity access in Pakistan.
For customers who are within 500 meters of the existing distribution grid the most cost-effective solution would be grid densification. This involves expanding and strengthening the current grid infrastructure.
The geospatial analysis identifies households within this category that are not currently electrified according to the customer count data of the electricity distribution companies (DISCOs) and geospatial analysis. Some of these households may already have informal connections to electricity, and they would need to be included in the grid densification efforts to bring them into the formal system and reduce commercial losses.
For the 9.3 million new connections that are located further than 500 meters from the existing grid infrastructure the predominant option is grid extension, followed by off-grid solutions such as mini-grids and individual solar home systems.
Grid extension refers to efforts to expand the grid to new areas that are currently more than 500 meters from the existing grid, involving the installation of new poles, wires and transformers, plus new customer connections in the target settlements.
The study estimates that grid extension is the least-cost option for 25 percent of total new connections required, and 53 percent of the new connections required beyond 500 meters from the current grid, providing a cost-effective solution for expanding access.
Where the distances involved are prohibitively costly, or where population densities are much lower, mini-grids and individual solar home systems emerge as the least-cost solution. Mini-grids emerge as the most economical solution for 20 percent of the new connections required, and are especially important in providing electricity access in KP province.
There have been encouraging developments in the expansion of mini-grid technologies and business models in other countries, making mini-grids a viable pathway to high-quality electricity access in more far-off locations with relatively high population densities.
Of a total number of 3.9 million mini-grid connections required by 2030, from a very low base, 2.1 million would be required in KP province due to its geography and demographic characteristics. Mini-grids in Pakistan are likely to be predominantly solar-powered, although micro hydropower and wind power may be options in some parts of the country.
Individual off-grid systems play a relatively small role in reaching universal electricity access in Pakistan, feasible for just 2.5 percent of new connections.
While such systems are already a common feature in many households due to the poor quality of grid-provided electricity, or the absence of a grid connection, they are the optimal long-term solution only in situations where households are both remote and relatively dispersed.
This is in contrast to countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, where individual off-grid systems play a much larger role. Individual off-grid systems will largely be solar-based, thereby limiting the quantity and quality of power that can be provided, although other technologies may also be viable in specific locations.
The World Bank commissioned this Least-Cost Electrification Study to identify the optimal route for achieving universal access to electricity by 2030 in Pakistan, through expansion of the existing distribution grid and off-grid solutions.
A Mini-Grid Portfolio Readiness Assessment was commissioned in parallel to provide further granularity on the potential for mini-grids across the country, and its findings are part of this report. The studies were carried out over a two-year period (2021–2022) by a team of experts, based on methodologies developed and tested in a number of other countries.
The results of the Least-Cost Electrification Study are based on a geospatial model that considers four options for delivering universal electrical service by 2030: (i) the densification of the existing electricity grid; (ii) extension of the existing grid; (iii) mini-grids, and (iv) individual off-grid systems.
The Mini-Grid Portfolio Readiness Assessment identifies and ranks the current high priority mini-grid sites across Pakistan which can be leveraged by federal and provincial governments, electricity distribution companies, and the private sector to enhance electricity access. The two sets of analysis have been compared and calibrated to inform the outputs and the recommendations contained in this report.
This report is intended to help inform the development of government policy on achieving universal electricity access and potential future investments, including actions to support greater private-sector participation in the provision of electricity access.
Furthermore, it utilised data from the Pakistan Energy Survey commissioned by the World Bank in parallel and published in 2023.
This Least-Cost Electrification Study should therefore be considered in conjunction with the Pakistan Energy Survey to get a full view of the electricity access situation in Pakistan, and potential policy and investment options.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
Comments
Comments are closed.