LONDON: Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose this week to their highest level in over seven months as high temperatures in Japan and South Korea boosted power demand and amid heightened geopolitical risks due to tensions in the Middle East.
The average LNG price for September delivery into north-east Asia was at $12.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), industry sources estimated. This is the highest level since mid-December and up from $12.00/mmBtu last week.
“The spot LNG market has been bullish this week, with Europe and Asia both gaining almost $1/mmBtu from the end of last week,” said Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS.
“High temperatures in Japan have boosted energy demand. Traders are also keeping an eye on tensions in the Middle East,” he said.
Hot weather in Japan and South Korea is driving gas burn, drawing terminal LNG stocks lower. However, the consumption has yet to translate into substantial spot LNG demand, said Samuel Good, head of LNG pricing at commodity pricing agency Argus.
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The killing of a Hamas leader in Iran has raised concerns that the 10-month war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas was turning into a wider Middle East war.
“Market participants have increased their risk premium based on the higher risk that supply disruptions may occur in the coming months if the tensions escalate further,” said Hans Van Cleef, chief energy economist at PZ Energy.
The prospects of Iran getting more actively involved in a conflict remains unlikely but still poses a risk of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, what would affect global LNG-markets significantly, Van Cleef added.
On the supply side, Russia’s Sakhalin plant has ongoing maintenance and loaded only five cargoes in July, compared with normal output of around 15-16 cargoes, ICIS’ Froley said.
Australia’s Ichthys LNG, operated by Japan’s Inpex Corp , has resumed operations following an outage at one of its trains and is operating at 70-80% capacity, sources told Reuters.
In Europe, rising geopolitical risk, higher temperatures, upcoming Norwegian Continental Shelf maintenance in September, and the strengthening of Asian prices, saw north-west Europe LNG prices rally 11.5% over the week, said Karim El Afany, managing editor of Atlantic LNG at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in September on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $11.475/mmBtu on Aug. 1, a $0.17/mmBtu discount to the September gas price at the Dutch TTF hub.
Argus assessed the August delivery price at $11.50/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $11.613/mmBtu, saying this was the highest price since early December, and the narrowest discount to the TTF since August 2023.
Atlantic LNG freight rates fell for the fourth consecutive week to $73,700/day on Friday, while the Pacific rates rose for the sixth week running to $75,250/day, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.
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