SYDNEY: The Australian dollar climbed to a one-month high on Monday, underpinned by buoyant risk appetite and expectations that interest rates will not be cut anytime soon, while the kiwi edged nearer a major chart level.
The Aussie rose 0.3% to $0.6682, the strongest since July 22, having rallied 1.4% last week. It faces resistance at $0.6688/90 while support is solid at the 200-day moving average of $0.6603.
The kiwi dollar also rose 0.3% to $0.6071, after advancing 0.9% last week. It is eyeing major levels at $0.6083 and $0.6088 to shake off the post RBNZ gloom.
The two have been bolstered by a rebound in risk appetite as strong US retail sales and cooling inflation led investors to bet the world’s largest economy will dodge a recession and the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September.
Fed members Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee were out over the weekend to flag the possibility of easing in September, with investors expecting the same from Chair Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole on Friday.
The calendar at home is light this week - the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its August policy meeting on Tuesday and New Zealand will publish its trade and retail sales figures.
“AUD/USD is likely to spend much of the week above our end quarter forecast of 0.6700 if the RBA minutes are perceived to be hawkish and/or FOMC Chair Powell is perceived to be dovish,” said Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
The RBA has all but ruled out a rate cut by the year-end, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has flagged two more rate cuts by the end of the year.
Australian dollar sets for strong weekly gain, kiwi lags
Markets are more sanguine on easing prospects, betting there was a 70% chance that the RBA can cut by year-end, compared with fully priced two weeks ago, and the RBNZ could afford to ease three more times after delivering the first cut in four years just last week.
The strength in the Aussie also defied a 9% tumble last week in iron ore prices, a startling drop that led the Treasury to issue a warning that a faster than assumed fall in the key commodity price could reduce the budget bottom line by $3 billion over the coming period.
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