SINGAPORE: Asian stocks scaled a one-month peak on Tuesday, tracking a Wall Street rally driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve could offer further hints of imminent rate cuts later this week. With the data calendar relatively light across major economies this week, all eyes are on Wednesday’s release of the Fed’s July meeting minutes and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday for clues on the outlook for US rates.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a one-month top before giving up some gains to trade 0.23% higher. US stock futures similarly rose, with S&P 500 futures last up 0.02% while Nasdaq futures advanced 0.12%.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.1%, though FTSE futures fell 0.32%. Fed policymakers have in recent days signalled a potential rate easing in September, priming markets for a similar tone from Powell and other speakers at the annual meeting of global central bankers and other policymakers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
“Should they acknowledge the US economy’s disinflation path, it will confirm a September rate cut,” said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie.
“Markets will likely turn on the extent to which Powell opens the door for the possibility of a 50 basis point (bps) cut at one of the next three FOMC meetings.” In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei hit its strongest level in over two weeks and latest traded 1.9% higher, but Chinese blue-chips fell 0.7% on continued worries over its gloomy economic outlook. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged down 0.36%.
China’s benchmark lending rates were left unchanged as expected on Tuesday, drawing a muted market reaction. The expectations of a dovish Fed outcome this week left the dollar struggling at an over seven-month low against the euro , which peaked at $1.108775 on Tuesday. Sterling hovered near a one-month high and last bought $1.2978. The dollar index was last marginally higher at 101.94, having fallen to its lowest since early January of 101.76 earlier in the session.
Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.27% to 146.99, with traders also looking to Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda’s appearance in parliament on Friday, where he is set to discuss the central bank’s decision last month to raise interest rates.
The BOJ’s hawkish tilt had injected huge volatility into markets as investors aggressively unwound yen-funded carry trades, rocking stocks globally. The market turmoil has since abated after BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida earlier this month played down the chance of further rate hikes in the near term.
“With markets calming, Ueda may change tack and return to talking about normalising interest rates,” said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
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