It began with Afghanistan. Then it was Sri Lanka. Now it is Bangladesh. Scenes are almost identical. Public outrage pouring onto streets. Mob moving towards the no-go areas of prime minister’s or president’s houses. Leaders of all three countries escaping and trying to find asylum in other countries. It was Ashraf Ghani in 2021 who escaped Afghanistan.
In 2022 it was Rajapakse of Sri Lanka. In 2024 it is Hasina Wazed of Bangladesh. The Great Escape always follows the joyful scenes of the public entering the “no-go” palaces of the leaders and signaling euphoric victory. These scenes create the hope and expectation of the public finally taking over from despots. Bangladesh is still a case to be studied as the public revolt is still under way.
South Asian countries have been, with the exception of India, not living up to their potential. The growth rates that were supposed to be 6% on the average are now being revised downward.
The regional unrest has created uncertainty that has lowered the expectations. A region of nearly 1.5 billion people is under-performing by a big margin. India seems to be the exception and at one time Bangladesh was the emerging star.
One of the biggest reasons of the aborted growth is the conflicts that have divided them. Unlike other regions like ASEAN of South-East Asia, South Asian blocs that could have promoted trade and development internally have become defunct. SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) is just a name till Indo-Pak conflicts are not resolved.
The India dominance over the other countries like Nepal and Bangladesh made it impossible for countries to develop relations independently. The present political instability in Bangladesh and Pakistan has further made the investors uncertain. The big question is will this instability be another temporary Arab Spring that turned into autumn or really bring a change in the way these countries are governed? Some factors to be considered are:
1- Public suppression or public expression-Democracy for decades was dependent on the mindset of the leaders. To a large extent it still is. South Asia is full of dynastic politics.
The father and the son and the brother and the daughter ruled places like India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Such politics succeeded for decades. These families would have a set formula for ruling. They would fight for democracy against autocrat rules, blame the opposition parties for corruption, manipulate the election systems and control the media and narrative.
Since the media was in their control public was almost captive to their propaganda machines. Suppression was carried out openly but the media would hardly speak about it. In the last two electoral cycles, this formula has reached its expiry date. Reason- the Generation Zee and their smart phones.
The rule-fool-rerule cycle has broken. Information cannot be suppressed and public cannot be oppressed. While in the past hundreds of incidents were blacked out, in the age of the social media this is not possible. Bangladesh student movement trigged off a popular uprising is a prime example.
Abu Sayed, a 25-year-old student, was protesting against anti-students discrimination. At one protest, he stood some 15 metres away from the Bangladesh police and stretched his arms out in defiance. They shot him dead.
The video of this blatant extrajudicial killing went viral online, igniting a fire that brought hundreds and thousands of students across the country onto streets. Educators, lawyers, parents and rickshaw-pullers joined them in solidarity and anger, mourning the death of Sayed. These protests fired up the whole younger generation to come out.
Almost 300 people were killed, adding fuel to fire. Each killing was finding its way through the social media in every house. The traditional “firewalls” that secured these dynasties had no answer to the fire of the youth. Finally, Hasina was asked to resign.
2- The longevity of resistance. The idea behind a political movement is to resist the oppression. Normal democracy allows peaceful protest and the right to voice your dissent. We have seen in Europe the unpopular government policies are resisted openly. The UK this year has been a protest center. The trains are shut as the subway staff are on strike. The doctors are protesting.
The nurses are boycotting. Protest is the obvious way of getting the public voice and demands across. France has seen severe riots against rising inflation. These are the normal democracy countries. South Asian nations have had abnormal democracies. The dynastic politics is a form of authoritarian government that by their illicit money and power do an institutional capture.
The election commission, the courts and the parliament are all misused for getting laws passed that are unjust and creating monopoly powers. When the public starts protesting it is dealt with brutal force. Pakistan and Bangladesh have seen severe crackdown on any hint or even symbol of resistance. India before Narendra Modi was slightly less abnormal in it democratic behaviour but it is mostly a one-man show since Narendra Modi came to power.
That is why the same faces keep on coming back in these countries. Since they are not direct martial laws, they manage to suppress and oppress resistance under the guise of “the worst democracy is better than the best autocracy” argument.
3- The Bangladesh difference-In Sri Lanka and Pakistan the movement they say is about the economy. A severe shortage of foreign exchange, inputs and massive rise in electricity prices forced people to come out. In Bangladesh it is more. We have heard and read about the amazing growth and development in their economy. In the last decade growth rates touched 6%. The exports rose and the factories boomed. Inflation and corruption have spoiled the party.
Higher inflation and corrupt practices of the rulers have trickled down to make the lives of people difficult. The other difference is that the resistance movement is not led by political parties; it was student led. It looks great that in five weeks a student movement forced a despot to resign and run away. But there is more than that. In Bangladesh Gen Zee students have fought for some time for their rights.
Many had spent almost all their young lives looking for ways to decouple economic progress from democratic degradation. In 2018, after a bus lost control and killed two teenagers, the road safety movement was born. Students demanded safer streets by taking over the streets for five days, checking licenses and directing traffic which is notoriously difficult to navigate in Bangladesh. That same year, a student movement successfully led to the overturn of the quota system.
Bangladesh is a case study unfolding as we talk. Mohammad Younis the famous social activist is now country’s caretaker prime minister. When and how the elections take place will tell its own story.
The two burning questions are: Do the students succeed to transform the power politics to public politics in the country? And, if they do, will it really begin the end of despotic, dynastic politics in South Asia? Keep watching.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and an analyst and can be reached at [email protected]
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