SEOUL: South Korea’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday but signalled it was ready to start easing policy as price pressures and growth eased, raising expectations for a rate cut at its October meeting.
The Bank of Korea held the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%, a decision expected by 38 out of 40 economists surveyed by Reuters.
However, the BOK said in its policy statement it now needed to “examine the proper timing of rate cuts while maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance.”
Economists expect the BOK to start cutting interest rates at its next policy meeting on Oct. 11, which would be around the same time the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver its first rate cut in four years.
The BOK also downgraded forecasts for both growth and inflation this year.
It cut 2024 growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.5% previously, after Asia’s fourth-largest economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter.
It now sees consumer inflation at 2.5% for this year, slower than 2.6% seen previously.
South Korea’s three-year treasury bond futures extended gains after the policy statement and were up 0.10 points to 105.97 as of 0143 GMT.
The prospects of an October cut come as the BOK’s global peers unwind the aggressive policy tightening of recent years with central banks in Canada, New Zealand and the euro zone having all loosened monetary settings.
South Korea holds interest rates steady, as widely expected
However, rising financial stability risks are one reason the BOK may go slow on rate cuts.
“Regarding financial stability, it is essential to assess the impact of government measures concerning the housing market and the increased market volatility because housing prices in the Seoul area continue to rise,” the bank said in the statement.
Worries about inflation have recently been replaced by concerns that household debt is increasing fast and consumption is slowing too quickly.
Rising apartment prices in Seoul took centre stage in policy talks with the government earlier this month announcing plans to increase housing supply to cool surging prices.
“Considering that household debt is increasing fast, we expect there to be only one rate cut this year. We think the BOK will remain relatively hawkish,” said Kim Jun-yeong, an analyst at DS Investment & Securities, who sees a cut in the fourth quarter.
The focus is on Governor Rhee Chang-yong’s press conference at 0210 GMT, where the names of any dissenters could be announced.
Dissenting votes typically lead to policy changes in subsequent months.
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