EDITORIAL: Sadly, there’s no end to the long list of the country’s natural comparative advantages that successive administrations have simply wasted. One that hasn’t got much attention at all is that Pakistan, with 40 percent of its population under the age of 40 and 64 percent of it under 30, has emerged as the youngest country by youth population globally.
The UN describes this as a potential demographic dividend, especially since much of the world has grown older while we have grown younger. And, as a percentage, a lot more of our population can contribute to nation building than most other countries.
But we’re also the fifth most populated country in the whole world. That means the youth bulge comprises millions upon millions of people in search of jobs and a vibrant economy capable of providing them year after year. Unfortunately, Pakistan is also one of the poorest and most illiterate countries in the world. And that, in turn, means that our youth bulge is exposed not to education and employment opportunities but poverty, disenfranchisement and increasing desperation.
It turns out that the economy must create about one million new jobs every year, for which it will have to maintain a sustained growth rate of 6 percent, to feed this youth bulge. Otherwise, the demographic dividend will turn into a demographic disaster, stoking yet more poverty and crime.
And since our economic growth is well short of 6 percent – averaging 3.6 percent in the last 10 years (FY2015-24) – and it’s not likely to get there for a while, what should have been a natural advantage for the country has already turned into a time bomb that will not stop ticking.
Let it be very clear, if the last few years of unprecedented inflation and unemployment seemed bad for the youth, what is going to come will be much worse. For, it’s already becoming clear that meeting the harsh “upfront conditions” of the IMF bailout programme will extract more than the proverbial pound of flesh from most of the youth, especially the big majority that languishes in middle- and lower-income households. And the taxes and tariffs will get stiffer with every tranche.
This is just another one of those self-inflicted wounds that other countries, where the leadership was mindful of local demographics, avoided very easily. India, for example, is not far behind on the list of young countries, yet despite its own sea of poverty it has managed to create a vibrant job market for its youth, in the process growing its economy into the fifth largest in the world. We, on the other hand, count ourselves lucky if we can find lenders willing to keep us from defaulting.
Now we’re so far behind the curve that the process of addressing this issue will be a very long one, starting with providing basic education and vocational training to students and young professionals. But such things, especially on the scale required at the moment, run into the kind of money that the state just does not have to throw around anymore; even though the government has no qualms about sprinkling perks, privileges and yet more special residential suites on members of parliament.
Just like the economic collapse and the threat of sovereign default, Pakistan’s disenchanted and lost youth is the result of unending policy blunders by successive governments, regardless of the party in power at any time. It’s because of our leaders that we’re left with a directionless, bankrupt and effectively insolvent economy.
Yet they continue to ignore the youth and its troubles only at their own peril. If not disarmed, this time bomb will most certainly detonate with devastating effect. We don’t have to look too far in the region to see real world examples of this phenomenon.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
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