MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to open marginally lower on Wednesday, in the wake of a decline in other Asian currencies, and is likely to hold a narrow range amid the central bank’s intervention.
The one-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will be a tad lower than its close of 83.9250 to the US dollar in the previous session.
The rupee has been directionless amid depressed volatility. Most market participants reckon its breakout from the current narrow range, when it happens, will be to the downside.
The seemingly persistent demand from importers, lacklustre portfolio flows and the rupee’s propensity to underperform when the dollar struggles are fuelling the bearish outlook.
“The sense is that we will get to 84 and that, in most likelihood, should mean a new leg higher (for dollar/rupee),” a currency trader at a bank said.
“Obviously if the Reserve Bank of India doggedly continues to defend 84, then there is not much anybody can do.”
The RBI’s repeated intervention near 83.94-83.97 has helped the rupee stay on the right side of the 84 level.
Asian currencies were down on the day and the dollar index was just shy of the year-to-date low, with the focus squarely on the US interest rate outlook.
Indian rupee ends moderately higher
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a September rate cut, investors are looking to gauge the size of the cut and the extent of the easing cycle.
The US core PCE data due Friday and other data points that indicate the health of the labour market hold the key to what will happen at the Fed’s next meeting.
The dollar and forex markets seem to be looking for the next catalyst, whether it be the Fed or global growth expectations, MUFG Bank said in a note.
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