Asian currencies edged higher on Wednesday while most equities slipped, as investors assessed the US presidential debate with a focus on US inflation data that is likely to influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.
US data later in the day would be crucial for traders to gather policy clues, although the Fed has made it clear that employment has taken on a greater focus than inflation.
While the Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates next week, the size of the rate cut is still up for debate, especially after a mixed labour report on Friday failed to provide clarity on which way the US central bank could go.
“A weaker-than-expected or within-the-expectation reading will bode well for stronger regional currencies for the rest of the week,” said Ruben Carlo Asuncion, chief economist, Union Bank of Philippines.
The broad MSCI emerging markets currency index was up 0.1%.
The Indonesian rupiah strengthened 0.2% while the Philippine peso gained 0.6%.
Shares in Bangkok fell as much as 1.2%, while those in Manila amd Jakarta lost 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Equities in Singapore, on the other hand, were up 0.4%.
Asian currencies largely range-bound
Separately, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump met for their first debate, a square-off that could have a significant impact on the Nov. 5 elections as polls show a tight race.
They battled over topics such as the economy, immigration and Trump’s legal woes.
“Global trade is likely to be better off if Harris wins the election, which should be positive for exports and FX in emerging markets, including Asia,” said Ratasak Piriyanont (Sak), investment strategist at Kasikorn Securities, adding that Trump’s “aggressive rhetoric and policy uncertainty” could induce higher volatility in the market.
“His protectionist measures are also a drag on the Asian economy, and Asian FX would be worse off if Trump wins the election,” he said.
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