EDITORIAL: Nobody ought to be really surprised that yet another international survey – conducted by Ipsos this time – has revealed that optimism has significantly decreased in the country, from 18pc in the second quarter to 11pc in the third, and only one in 10 Pakistanis now believes the country is headed in the right direction. It’s also no surprise that “economic problems” continue to top the list despite the government’s recent contention that all sorts of indicators were finally getting better.
Quite naturally, the government is trumpeting the late dip in inflation as a great policy success; even though the State Bank’s IMF-driven hawkish squeeze on money supply that may or may not have something to do with it was well beyond its mandate on the fiscal side. But more than a hundred million households that have seen their real incomes erode in recent years of record high prices and unemployment would like to see a visible difference in their purchasing power before they decide to celebrate. Plus, by now they realise that they’ve once again been offered as the proverbial sacrificial lambs to meet the tough conditions of the new IMF programme, so now they’re bracing for the inflated utility bills that will eat up what is left of their savings.
Indeed, the survey also said that “concerns about rising electricity prices and the burden of taxes have become significantly more pronounced”, with the latter reaching a four-year high. And, let there be no doubt, whenever the new EFF (Extended Fund Facility) starts rolling, these burdens will amplify with each tranche, making the ordinary Pakistani’s life incrementally more miserable; so there’s not much better to expect from the next such survey another quarter down the road.
Ipsos did not reveal the size of its sample, but some of its findings should really jolt policymakers in Islamabad. For example, 94pc people are less comfortable than a quarter ago about making daily purchases. This definitely does not gel with the official claim about the direction of prices. Of course, it also shows that people are still losing jobs at an alarming rate because fiscal and monetary tightening, mandated by the IMF, on top of expensive input costs, has led to shutdowns across the business world and rendered a lot of people jobless in the toughest economic/financial environment in the country’s history. There’s no safety net to speak of, yet they’ll still have to pay the inflated bills that are necessary to keep the IMF satisfied and the country at a safe distance from default.
Interestingly, the survey also finds more pessimism in urban areas. Perhaps rural residents are better insulated from the information flow that constantly updates their urban counterparts of the perils, for middle- and lower-income groups, of the IMF bailout facility. Either way, it’s a shame that the country, government and people alike, relies on outside outfits to conduct surveys about trends and patterns in the Pakistani society. Considering the precarious economic situation, especially, the government should have started conducting such surveys a long time ago. That way, everybody would have been better informed, and officials would not have been able to live comfortably in their bubble, pretending and preaching that all was well.
It’s at such times that the quality of leadership is tested. If the people are made to suffer – as they are in this case to meet IMF’s conditions – and then told from the top that things are getting better, then it’s only natural for feelings of frustration and disenfranchisement to fester. And when such suffering people number in the many millions, and the leadership still refuses to wake up, there is potential trouble down the line for everybody.
No wonder optimism is plummeting.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
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