Lessons for Pakistan: Hezbollah pager attacks raise fresh concerns on cyber-physical warfare

In a highly sophisticated cyber-attack that has sent shockwaves across the globe, thousands of Hezbollah members’ pagers exploded simultaneously throughout Lebanon (and Syria).

The attack killed at least 9 people and injured thousands of individuals, including the Iranian ambassador. Security experts speculate that Israel, utilising its advanced cyber warfare capabilities, infiltrated the supply chain of Motorola devices used by Hezbollah operatives.

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Small amounts of military grade explosives were possibly embedded during the manufacturing or distribution process which were remotely detonated using a viral malware to trigger the explosions in unison.

This unprecedented breach highlights the growing use of cyber tactics in modern conflicts, raising concerns about the vulnerabilities of everyday electronic devices in global espionage and military operations.

Recently, in a major setback for Iran’s nuclear ambitions, scientists at the Natanz nuclear facility were left baffled as the centrifuges used to enrich uranium began spinning uncontrollably, leading to repeated failures.

Cyber warfare, controlled by AI driven autonomous tools, can have widespread and unpredictable consequences, potentially damaging critical infrastructure, economic systems, or even triggering military conflicts

Not only were the centrifuges malfunctioning, but the computers controlling them were also crashing without clear explanation. This mysterious malfunction destroyed nearly one-fifth of Iran’s centrifuges and delayed their nuclear program by several years.

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The culprit was later identified as Stuxnet, a highly sophisticated cyber-weapon unlike any other malware seen before. Unlike traditional viruses, which typically steal data or disrupt software, Stuxnet crossed into the physical realm, causing real damage to industrial equipment.

It is widely believed that the cyber-attack was a joint operation by the United States and Israel, marking one of the first known instances of a cyber weapon being used to cause large-scale physical destruction.

The following year, Iran landed a highly classified US spy plane called RQ-170 Sentinel stealth in a daring feat of cyber warfare and electronic warfare.

Iran used very sophisticated electronic jamming and GPS spoofing techniques. By tricking the drone’s navigation system into believing it was landing at its home base, Iranian forces were able to guide the aircraft into a controlled descent on Iranian soil with minimal damage.

This audacious operation not only delivered a prized piece of U.S. military technology into Iranian hands but also showcased the growing ability of nation-states to counter even the most advanced surveillance systems through cyber and electronic tactics.

Usually, countries often refrain from launching high-end cyber-attacks against each other due to the risk of uncontrollable escalation and retaliation.

Cyber warfare, controlled by AI driven autonomous tools, can have widespread and unpredictable consequences, potentially damaging critical infrastructure, economic systems, or even triggering military conflicts.

Much like nuclear deterrence, the fear of mutually assured destruction in the cyber domain acts as a restraint. Attribution in cyber attacks is often difficult, and misidentification of the attacker could provoke unintended conflicts or diplomatic crises.

As a result, nations carefully weigh the risks of large-scale cyber offensives, favouring covert operations, espionage, or more targeted cyber tactics to avoid spiralling into all-out cyber war.

According to IBM, the average global cost of each data breach is approximately $4.88 million. Meanwhile, a report from Statista estimates that the total cost of cybercrime worldwide will surpass $15 trillion by 2029.

Over the past six months, numerous cyber incidents have emerged on the international stage, with not only rogue criminal groups responsible for these activities but also governments leveraging cyber-attacks as a strategic tool.

Most recently, South Korea’s military is investigating the leak of highly sensitive information on Seoul’s espionage activities and issued an arrest warrant for a suspect.

In July this year, a faulty software update for Microsoft caused a global IT outage disrupting airlines and hospital operations around the world. This affected 8.5 million machines and cost Fortune 500 companies over $5.4 billion.

Germany accused China of directing a “serious” cyberattack against Germany’s Federal Office for Cartography and Geodesy (BKG), which conducts precision mapping of the entire country.

Japan’s space agency has suffered a series of cyberattacks since last year. Hackers hit Britain’s Ministry of Defence with a cyberattack that exposed sensitive information on every troop apart from the UK’s special forces.

AI is also being used to improve espionage efforts by analysing vast amounts of data to identify vulnerabilities within government systems, political figures, or key institutions.

AI’s ability to process and sift through data efficiently enables more effective intelligence gathering, which can be used to discredit political figures, expose corruption, or leak sensitive government information.

The growing cyber warfare between nuclear powers like India and Pakistan adds a new layer of complexity to their already tense relationship. Both countries, possessing nuclear arsenals and advanced military capabilities, are increasingly incorporating cyber strategies into their defence postures.

India, which has been rapidly modernising its military, is investing heavily in cyber defence and offensive capabilities. The establishment of its Defence Cyber Agency (DCA) in 2019 highlights India’s growing focus on integrating cyber warfare into its national security strategy.

As India seeks to strengthen its digital infrastructure and counter external threats, Pakistan must also enhance its own cyber capabilities to avoid vulnerabilities that could be exploited during any potential conflict.

For Pakistan, addressing the threat of cyber warfare requires a multi-faceted approach. Strengthening cyber defences for critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities, energy grids, and communication networks, must be a top priority.

Investing in advanced cybersecurity frameworks and establishing specialised cyber command units can help Pakistan secure its national assets. Implementing AI-driven early-warning systems and bolstering public-private partnerships will ensure a more resilient defence posture.

Given that cyberattacks often operate in the shadows, it is crucial for Pakistan to develop strong attribution capabilities to accurately identify potential threats and avoid miscalculations that could escalate tensions.

Pakistan can adopt a diplomatic strategy by engaging in international forums to advocate for norms and regulations in cyber warfare. This could include pushing for agreements on non-targeting of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear sites, in the event of cyber conflicts.

By fostering regional dialogue on cyber security and cooperating with global powers, Pakistan can mitigate the risks of cyberattacks spiralling into broader military confrontations with India, ensuring stability in an increasingly digitised geopolitical landscape.

As AI and Cyber Security become more integral to geopolitics, nations must grapple with both the opportunities it offers and the risks it introduces. In this unfolding new era of AI geopolitics, the balance of power, national security, and global peace may increasingly depend on how nations wield this double-edged sword.

The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners