LONDON: OPEC raised its forecasts for world oil demand for the medium and long term in an annual outlook, citing growth led by India, Africa and the Middle East and a slower shift to electric vehicles and cleaner fuels.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its 2024 World Oil Outlook published on Tuesday, sees demand growing for a longer period than other forecasters like BP and the International Energy Agency, which see oil use peaking this decade.
A longer period of rising consumption would be a boost for OPEC, whose 12 members depend on oil income. In support of its view, OPEC said it expected more push back on “ambitious” clean energy targets, and cited plans by several global carmakers to scale down electrification goals.
“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword to the report being launched in Brazil, a non-member of OPEC with which the group is seeking to form closer ties.
“Over the past year, there has been further recognition that the world can only phase in new energy sources at scale when they are genuinely ready.”
OPEC expects world oil demand to reach 118.9 million barrels a day (bpd) by 2045, around 2.9 million bpd higher than expected in last year’s report. The report rolled out its timeline to 2050 and expects demand to hit 120.1 million bpd by then.
That’s far above other 2050 forecasts from the industry. BP projects oil use will peak in 2025 and decline to 75 million bpd in 2050. Exxon Mobil expects oil demand to stay above 100 million bpd through 2050, similar to today’s level.
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