PARIS: Strategie Grains slashed its forecast for the ongoing sunflower seed harvest in the European Union, mostly due to poor weather in eastern Europe, while also reducing its estimate for the rapeseed harvest for a fifth consecutive month.
The outlook was better for next season with first planting estimates pointing to a 4% rise in rapeseed area while sunflower and soybean acreage would remain steady, Strategie Grains said.
The consultancy expects the 2024 sunflower seed harvest in the 27-member bloc to reach 8.9 million metric tons this year, down 400,000 tons from the month-earlier outlook and 9.8 million harvested in 2023. “With the progress of harvesting operations, the disastrous sunseed yield is confirmed, with the performance expected to be at its lowest in the last 15 years in Bulgaria and Romania,” the consultancy said in a report. “The situation is also disappointing in Hungary, with a national yield expected down by 5% compared to the five-year average. In France, the delay in crop development will imply late harvesting and therefore increased exposure to bad weather,” it added.
The EU’s crop monitoring service MARS last week had also lowered its outlook for the sunflower harvest but without giving a crop estimate. The EU rapeseed harvest would reach 16.7 million tons, down from 16.9 million tons previously and more than 16.5% below last year’s level, with the revision mainly concerning Germany, Strategie Grains said. The further decline in output and increased demand widened the expected EU rapeseed deficit despite a sharp rise in projected imports from Canada due to attractive crush margins.
The consultancy forecasted a further rise in EU sunseed and rapeseed prices due to a substantial deficit taking shape on the EU and world seed and vegetable oils balance sheets.
In soybeans, prices have an upward potential despite a heavy world balance sheet, due to the tightness caused by the enforcement from Dec. 30 of the EU’s new deforestation regulation (EUDR), banning agricultural imports such as soybeans and palm oil from deforested land, Strategie Grains said.
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