Foreign policy expert says no normalisation of Pakistan-India ties without continued formal dialogue

Foreign policy expert Michael Kugelman stressed that Islamabad and New Delhi would need to start and then continue a “formal dialogue” if the two neighbouring countries want to normalise relations, remarks that come on the heels of the first foreign minister to be sent by India for a visit to Pakistan in nearly a decade.

Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is scheduled to visit Pakistan next week for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit that is set to take place on October 15-16. Some analysts at the time saw this as a breakthrough, but many were also quick to warn that the visit should not be seen as a precursor for friendlier relations.

The two nuclear-armed nations have had a frosty relationship and cultural as well as trade relations have remained suspended for a number years.

Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar to visit Pakistan for SCO summit

However, Kugelman director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington D.C. and an expert on relations of South Asian countries, said normalization is still some time away.

“You can’t get to normalisation until you have a formal dialogue going,” Kugelman told Business Recorder.

Kugelman said a small step towards normalising trade relations could help Pakistan.

Pakistan is currently looking to recover from what many call its worst economic crisis with headline inflation figures touching the highest in history, bringing in tandem record high interest rates as well. The country has hopped from one bailout with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to another, but many still see major reform initiatives missing.

“Even limited border trade with India has the potential to have significant impact on Pakistan’s economy, and yet it is parlaysed due to ground realities,” he added.

However, major issues stand in the way of any normalisation including the issue over Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).

“Both sides seem to have a strong set of preconditions that each insists to be met before they can have a serious dialogue.

“If there was enough trust in the relationship even for limited confidence building measures, I would have more hope. Limited engagement would not have any particular cost for either side and yet neither has been inclined,” added Kugelman, stressing the need for continued engagement.

The lack of strong relations between the two countries have further led to “missed opportunities” due to lack of a formal dialogue, leaving them bereft of working together across many spheres including technology, climate, public health, trade and business opportunities, including share date and talk about collective threats.

He added that while its fascinating that Jaishankar is visiting Pakistan, he isn’t coming to engage with Pakistan rather just to participate in the SCO.

“2019 was a seminal year for Pakistan-India relations. It dealt double blows.”

Pakistan can engage in track 2 dialogues and business leaders can engage in many third countries, look into opportunities for the two sides to at least have conversations, he added.

Soft diplomacy

Last month, there was excitement about the prospect of ‘The Legend of Maula Jatt’ – Pakistan’s highest-grossing film being released in Indian theatres.

Initially slated for release on October 2, it got held up because of protests towards its release. It is still not playing in theatres.

However, popular Pakistan actor Fawad Khan, revered by many across the border as well, is currently shooting a new Bollywood film – following a long hiatus — in the United Kingdom.

Currently, Pakistan and Indian artists cannot travel across the border for productions.

That doesn’t mean that Pakistan cannot look beyond official channels.

“Both countries should look to try to find opportunities to incentivise people-people-engagement, previous programs such as Aman ki Asha, or cultural exchanges.”

Last year, then foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari visited India to lead Pakistan’s delegation to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM) that was held on May 4-5, 2023 in Goa.

This was the first official visit by a senior Pakistani official to India since 2016.

While Bilawal did not meet any Indian leaders, he and Jaishankar used the forum to trade blame for their frosty ties.

Earlier this year, Jaishankar said that India would want to “find a solution to the issue of years-old cross-border terrorism” but added that it cannot be the “policy of a good neighbour”.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024