Asian stock markets rose on Monday and currencies declined as investors assessed China’s underwhelming stimulus measures, while focus was on key interest rate decisions by central banks in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines later this week.
China said on Saturday it will “significantly increase” debt to revive its sputtering economy but left investors guessing on the overall size of the stimulus package.
“The lack of any announcement on a concrete fiscal stimulus headline figure or major consumption measures is continuing to test investors’ patience,” Maybank analysts said in a note.
The onshore yuan was 0.1% lower while stocks in Shanghai rallied 1.7%. The South Korean won inched 0.4% lower while the Malaysian ringgit dipped 0.1% as the US dollar extended gains.
In Singapore, stocks added 0.5% while the local dollar was largely flat after the city-state’s central bank left its monetary settings unchanged, as widely expected, as data showed the economy perked up in the third quarter.
Focus now turns to interest rate decisions in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, all due on Wednesday, with analysts expecting only the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to deliver a 25-basis-point cut.
The BSP started its easing cycle in August and data indicating slower annual inflation in September has given the central bank room to cut rates further.
Meanwhile, analysts at Barclays expect Bank Indonesia to pause its rate-cutting cycle and stay on hold, noting recent rupiah stability.
BI had surprised markets with a 25 bps cut last month just ahead of the Federal Reserve’s 50 bps cut.
Asian currencies eke out gains on muted dollar
The rupiah had been under pressure earlier this year in response to changing risk appetite in global financial markets but has since recouped some of that loss and is down just about 1.2% so far this year.
“We expect BI to emphasise the need to defend external stability, while focusing on the USD/IDR level. That said, we acknowledge that this is a close call, and continue to see risk of BI pushing ahead with a 25 bp cut – especially if USD/IDR continues to fall or trade data surprises,” they wrote.
The rupiah was last flat and the peso inched 0.2% lower.
Regional equities were broadly higher tracking Wall Street gains from last week. Stocks in Seoul, Jakarta and Manila rose 0.6% to 1%.
Markets in Thailand were closed for a public hReuters
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