SINGAPORE: Asia shares dipped in and out of positive territory on Monday, under pressure from weakness in Chinese stocks, but bitcoin BTC= scaled a three-month peak as “Trump trades” continued to ramp up.
Gold XAU= hit another record high on conflict in the Middle East and an extremely close US presidential election, with the yellow metal expected to stay in favour among much global uncertainty.
Optimism over Beijing’s slew of stimulus measures first announced late in September has turned into caution in recent days as investors look to further details of more fiscal support from policymakers. Though China cut its benchmark lending rates on Monday, the move was anticipated.
Equities in Hong Kong .HSI were last down 0.6%, while China’s blue-chip index. CSI300 swung between losses and gains. It last traded 0.4% higher, while the Shanghai Composite Index.
Japan’s Nikkei N225 rose 0.34%. Further details on Chinese stimulus might take some time to emerge.
“We might have to wait until late October or early November for concrete plans from the Standing Committee meeting of the National People’s Congress,” said Chaoping Zhu, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Shanghai.
US election
With just about two weeks to go before the Nov. 5. US election, bets that a Donald Trump victory are on rise in some financial instruments.
‘Trump trade’ lifts dollar, Asia stocks await China news
The Republican candidate’s tariff, tax and immigration policies are seen as inflationary, and thus negative for bonds and positive for the dollar.
He is also seen as taking a more favourable stance towards cryptocurrencies.
“(It) seems now that Trump’s ahead in the key battleground states, which suggests he’s quite well placed to regain the White House and I think the markets started to factor that in last week with the stronger equities, higher yields, US dollar obviously doing very, very well and bitcoin on track for a 10% gain over the past week,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG.
Bitcoin BTC= was last 0.5% higher at $69,100, after having touched its strongest level since July at $69,487 earlier in the session.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency gained 9.6% last week, and is up more than 8% for the month thus far.
“Things look pretty good for bitcoin right here. I think it can continue higher,” said Sycamore.
The dollar hovered not too far from a high of more than two months against a basket of currencies =USD on Monday, with the dollar index last at 103.46.
Sterling GBP=D3 dipped 0.02% to $1.3045, while the euro EUR=EBS fell 0.01% to $1.0865.
In the bond market, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield US10YT=RR ticked up one basis point to 4.0907%, while the two-year yield US2YT=RR last stood at 3.9568%.
US/ Spot gold XAU=peaked at a record of $2,727.39 an ounce, extending its rally after having gained more than 2% last week.
“One of the clearest Trump trades so far has been gold, given his belligerent stance on trade and willingness to weaponise the dollar, keeping demand for diversification well supported among emerging central banks,” said Arun Sai, senior multi asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management.
Oil prices ticked higher on Monday, nursing a steep fall from last week.
O/R Brent crude futures LCOc1 were last 0.4% higher at $73.36 a barrel, while US crude CLc1 ticked up 0.43% to $69.52 per barrel.
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