BENGALURU: Asian stocks struggled for direction on Monday, while currencies continued to face downward pressure as mounting expectations of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the US election next month pushed the dollar higher.
Election polls show rising odds of former President Trump winning the Nov. 5 election and are boosting the dollar, since his proposed tariff and tax policies are seen as likely to keep US interest rates high and undermine currencies of trading partners.
The Thai baht fell 0.7%, on track for its worst drop in two weeks and the first monthly decline in six months, while the Philippine peso inched up marginally on Monday but was heading for its first monthly fall since May.
The South Korean won fell 0.4%, and the Malaysian ringgit was largely flat. They were also on track for monthly declines, and have fallen nearly 4% so far in October.
Most Asian central banks have started their easing cycle. The Bank of Thailand last week surprisingly cut its key interest rate, while the Philippine central bank lowered rates and Bank Indonesia maintained the status quo as expected.
“Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is now the only Emerging Asia central bank that we do not expect to ease policy through 2025,” Barclays analysts wrote.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s newly minted leader, President Prabowo Subianto officially swore in his cabinet on Monday, including the reappointment of the country’s highly-regarded Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.
The impact of Prabowo’s election as Indonesia’s new president should be positive for bonds and the rupiah, as Sri Mulyani has been reappointed as the finance minister, while the impact on the stock market is to be mixed as details on policies are still awaited, said Fakhrul Fulvian, an economist at Trimegah Securities.
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