The scientific revolution’s call to rulers

The scientific and technological revolution that began after World War II has fundamentally reshaped global development. Its effects are evident across economies, societies, and international power dynamics.

From pioneering innovations in electronics and aerospace to the advent of the digital age, this era has fueled rapid economic growth, transformed industries, and widened global inequalities.

The present phase, characterized by the rise of emerging technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), promises both significant opportunities and substantial challenges for the global community.

The post-World War II era, often referred to as the “Golden Age of Capitalism,” marked an unprecedented acceleration in scientific discovery and technological innovation. This era, which spanned from 1945 to the early 1970s, witnessed major advancements that have continued to shape global development.

Key Technological Advancements:

1940s-1950s:

1- Computers (1945): The introduction of electronic computers like ENIAC enabled faster data processing, driving progress in sectors like finance, healthcare, and education.

2- Transistors (1947): This innovation made electronics smaller and more efficient, influencing the development of radios, TVs, computers, and mobile phones.

3- Integrated Circuits (1950s): These were vital in the creation of microprocessors, the core of modern computers and digital devices.

4- Satellites (1957): The launch of Sputnik 1 marked the start of the space age, enabling global communication and advancements in navigation, weather forecasting, and broadcasting.

1960s-1980s

1- Fiber Optics (1966): This invention transformed telecommunications by enabling high-speed, long-distance data transmission, laying the groundwork for the internet.

2- Microprocessors (1971): Microprocessors revolutionized computing, enabling the rise of personal computers and other digital devices.

3- The Internet (1969): Initially developed as ARPANET, the internet evolved by the 1980s to allow global network communication.

4- Mobile Phones (1973): The first handheld mobile phone call signaled the start of mobile technology, leading to the wireless communication era.

5- Satellite TV became publicly available in 1976. It was the first baby step toward globalization of (IKRID)

6- Xerox and Fax machines also became widely available in developed countries during late 1970s.

7- Personal Computers (1980s): PCs became widely accessible, boosting productivity, education, and entertainment, and changing daily life.

These advancements not only reshaped industries but also shifted economies toward a more digital, connected, and technology-driven landscape.

Economic Impact of Early Technological Advancements

The rapid technological advancements of the post-war era spurred significant economic growth. According to the World Bank, global GDP surged from $1.37 trillion in 1960 to $11.3 trillion in 1980, a staggering 700% increase over two decades. Developed nations, particularly in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, reaped the lion’s share of these gains. This period saw an increase in productivity, higher living standards, and the emergence of multinational corporations that dominated global markets.

However, the benefits of this growth were not evenly distributed. While developed nations experienced robust economic expansion, many developing countries struggled to keep pace. They lacked the infrastructure, financial resources, and skilled labor needed to adopt and benefit from new technologies.

The Technological Divide: Uneven Access to Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs)

Despite the remarkable advancements, the global impact of the scientific and technological revolution was initially limited, particularly for developing nations. This led to the emergence of the “digital divide,” a term that describes the gap between those with access to modern ICTs and those without.

Factors Contributing to the Digital Divide

1- Infrastructure: Many developing nations lacked the necessary infrastructure, such as reliable electricity and internet connectivity, to support new technologies.

2- Cost: High costs of technology adoption and implementation posed significant barriers for both nations and individuals in developing regions.

3- Skills Gap: The disparity in digital literacy and technical skills between developed and developing countries further exacerbated the divide.

Quantifying the digital divide

The extent of this divide was evident in data from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU):

• In 2001, internet penetration was 29.4% in developed countries compared to just 2.8% in developing countries.

• Fixed-telephone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants were 53.8 in developed nations but only 8.9 in developing nations.

These figures underscore the disparity in access to ICTs at the turn of the millennium, which limited the ability of developing countries to participate in the global digital economy.

The Internet Revolution and the Globalization of Information, Knowledge, Research, Innovation, and Development (IKRID)

The creation of the World Wide Web in 1989, followed by its widespread adoption in the 1990s, marked a transformative period in global development. It enabled the rapid globalization of information, knowledge, research, innovation, and development (IKRID).

Impact on information access

The internet dramatically reduced the cost and increased the speed of information sharing. A study by Martin Hilbert and Priscila López revealed that between 1986 and 2007, the world’s capacity to store information grew by 23% annually, while the capacity to communicate information increased by 28% annually. The capacity to compute information surged at an even more remarkable 61% per year, underscoring the exponential growth of the digital economy.

Economic Impact of Internet Adoption

The economic impact of the internet has been significant, especially in mature economies. A study by the McKinsey Global Institute found that the internet contributed to 21% of GDP growth in developed nations during the five years leading up to 2011.

The emergence of e-commerce, online services, and digital banking has transformed traditional business models and created new opportunities for economic expansion.

The mobile revolution: A game-changer for developing nations

The advent of mobile technology, particularly smartphones, has revolutionized development in low-income countries, enabling “leapfrogging” over traditional stages of technological development. The widespread adoption of mobile phones has improved access to information, financial services, and markets.

Mobile phone adoption

The growth of mobile phone subscriptions has been remarkable:

• In 2005, there were 33.9 mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants globally. By 2020, this number had increased to 107.5 per 100 inhabitants.

• In developing countries, mobile subscriptions grew from 22.9 per 100 inhabitants in 2005 to 99.5 per 100 inhabitants by 2020.

Mobile internet and economic growth

Mobile internet has proven to be a key driver of economic growth in developing nations. The World Bank found that a 10-percentage-point increase in mobile broadband penetration corresponds to a 1.5% increase in GDP in low- and middle-income countries. This growth is attributed to improved communication, access to information, and digital financial inclusion.

The rise of generative AI and its potential for global development

The emergence of generative AI, a subset of artificial intelligence that can create new content, represents the latest frontier in the ongoing technological revolution. While still in its infancy, generative AI has the potential to transform everything including education, healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing, commerce, energy, transport and governance in developing countries.

Changing dynamics between developed and developing nations:

The relationship between developed and developing nations has evolved, particularly in terms of economic dynamics and technology transfer.

Shift in manufacturing and labour markets

The shift of manufacturing from developed countries to developing nations, particularly China, has been a defining trend of recent decades. For instance, China’s share of global manufacturing output increased from 8.7% in 2004 to 28.4% in 2018, while the US share decreased from 22.3% to 16.6% over the same period.

In 2023, China’s share of global manufacturing output was approximately 35%. This reinforces its position as the world’s leading manufacturing superpower, significantly surpassing other countries like the US, Japan, and Germany.

Technology transfer and innovation

Developing nations, particularly China, are transitioning from technology recipients to innovation hubs:

• China’s R&D spending rose from 0.89% of GDP in 2000 to 2.23% in 2019. In 2023, China’s research and development (R&D) spending reached over 3.3 trillion yuan, equivalent to about 458.5 billion USD. This marked an 8.1% increase from the previous year.

The spending included 221.2 billion yuan dedicated to basic research, which saw a 9.3% increase year-on-year. The country’s share of global patent applications increased from 1.8% in 2000 to 43.4% in 2019.

In 2023, global patent applications reached a record of nearly 3.5 million, continuing a trend of rising patent filings over the past few years. China accounted for the largest share, with around 1.58 million applications, which is approximately 45% of the total global filings. The US followed with 505,539 applications, while Japan, South Korea, and the European Patent Office also ranked among the top five contributors, collectively accounting for about 85% of the global total.

800 million out of poverty

China’s success in lifting over 800 million people out of poverty has significantly boosted its domestic consumption market, transforming millions into middle-income earners and broadening the consumer base. This shift has driven consumption growth, as rising incomes have enabled more discretionary spending on goods, services, and higher-quality products. Government investments in infrastructure and targeted poverty alleviation in rural areas have stimulated consumption in previously underdeveloped regions, creating new economic opportunities and reducing precautionary savings.

These developments have shifted China’s economic model from export-led growth to one driven by domestic consumption, which now represents around 40% of GDP. This transformation supports more sustainable long-term growth, as increased consumer spending drives innovation, e-commerce adoption, and greater demand for education and healthcare. While challenges like regional disparities persist, China’s inclusive policies aim to further enhance domestic demand, making it a significant force in the global economy.

Opportunities for developing nations

1- Developing countries have the potential to educate, train, upskill, and reskill nearly their entire population, paving the way for comprehensive economic transformation. Leapfrogging: Developing nations can skip traditional stages of technological development by adopting new digital solutions.

2- Improved Service Delivery: AI and mobile internet can enhance essential services like healthcare and education.

3- New Economic Opportunities: The digital economy opens up new avenues for entrepreneurship and growth.

Policy implications

To harness the full potential of the ongoing technological revolution, developing nations must prioritize inclusive and strategic policies:

1- The ruling elites must immediately recognize and understand the transformative impact of generative AI and other ongoing scientific and technological revolutions, while staying informed about the innovations set for deployment in the coming months.

2- They must urgently discard outdated approaches and embrace a new paradigm by relearning the fundamentals of these technologies to drive national progress.

3- The leadership should consider a temporary pause on large-scale projects that can be delayed for 2-3 years, redirecting resources instead toward building digital infrastructure, distributing cutting-edge tools and technologies, ensuring widespread access to renewable energy (especially solar), and delivering fast broadband through terrestrial networks, dish antennas, or satellite-based systems like Starlink.

4- Investing in Human Potential: The term ‘labor’ undermines human dignity; instead, the focus must shift to universally harnessing and enhancing brainpower, the true asset of individuals, to drive economic transformation.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024