Pakistan may be congratulating Trump, but will remain worried

Policymakers in Pakistan were closely monitoring the US election results, as did many others who rely on Washington for diplomatic and financial support during crises.

A victory speech had already been delivered by Republican Party Presidential Candidate Donald Trump, claiming his victory to be historic and most impressive in US history.

Trump returning to office is causing concern among many nations – including Pakistan – about the possible impact of this transition on bilateral ties.

In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory confirmation, Pakistan’s strategy appears to be one of swift alignment with the incoming administration. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took to X almost immediately after Trump’s victory speech to congratulate him, labeling the win as “historic.”

This prompt response indicates a sense of urgency within Pakistani leadership to establish rapport and signal support for Trump’s second term.

This outreach also indicates that Pakistan is aware of how Trump’s presidency could bring unpredictability to ties and does not want to project an image of reluctance.

By framing his victory as historic, PM Sharif aims to appeal to Trump on a personal level while simultaneously committing to work closely with his administration.

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Partially, this proactive stance reflects concerns within Pakistani leadership about maintaining favorable relations, particularly during the early days of Trump’s presidency.

It is important to understand why this nervousness may exist. Over recent years, Pakistan has endeavored to rebuild its relationship with the Biden/Harris administration after it suffered setbacks following controversial leadership transitions within Pakistan and former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to Russia during its invasion of Ukraine.

As ties between the two countries improve, the US State Department has shied away from criticizing Pakistan, insisting that internal issues within Pakistan should be resolved through its judicial system.

Meanwhile, Pakistan, with Washington’s likely support, has sought assistance from international financial institutions like the IMF to stabilise its economy while making efforts to navigate complex ties between China and the U.S.

In the wake of a more combative and unpredictable White House, Pakistan may need to prepare for scenarios that did not exist until election day.

Future of Pakistan’s relationship with America

To start off, it’s important to note that Pakistan is not high on the U.S. Asia-Pacific policy agenda. Following the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, Pakistan has struggled to maintain its relevance in American policymaking circles, diminishing its ability to attract attention and support.

Arguably, the primary concern for U.S. policymakers regarding Pakistan has become its overall stability, particularly given its population of over 240 million and status as a military power.

This concern might be one of the few areas where Pakistan has managed to regain some footing in discussions with Washington. However, beyond this aspect, there has been minimal focus on enhancing bilateral relations under both Biden and Harris administrations.

It remains uncertain what discussions took place between Pakistani officials and U.S. representatives under Biden/Harris led White House aimed at restoring diplomatic rapport amid these challenges.

With Trump’s return to office, it is likely that this lack of attention for Pakistan may worsen.

The management of US-Pakistan relations could devolve further into officials who may only deal with ensuring that Pakistan remains compliant within whatever limited scope exists in their relationship.

There is now an air of uncertainty regarding who will lead his team on South Asian affairs, especially in light of potential changes at CENTCOM, the Pentagon, and other key institutions including new diplomatic team in Pakistan.

However, it seems there exists a consensus among Pakistan’s power corridors that the recent understanding with the U.S. diplomatic and military institutions has been mutually beneficial.

It is expected that briefings from the relevant U.S. institutions will emphasise the importance of not undermining the current governance setup in Pakistan.

However, there could be more questions for Pakistan from the White House, like asking for further cooperation to address U.S. concerns over China’s influence in Pakistan.

On a brighter note, this situation presents an opportunity for Pakistan to reassess its foreign policy strategy towards the US and redefine its role within the Asia-Pacific region.

It could be a crucial moment for Islamabad to consider new avenues—such as negotiating a deal with India or reaching out assertively to the incoming administration with proposals that could ignite their interest in broadening cooperation with Pakistan.

This pivotal time calls for bold decisions from Pakistani leadership: rethinking traditional approaches and exploring innovative diplomatic strategies could pave the way for a more effective engagement with both Washington and regional dynamics moving forward.

The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners