Climate risk – is the climate action enough?

50 years from now, what would the world look like if climate risk is not managed? That could be a world with more frequent extreme weather events, flooding to coastal cities and low-lying areas, food shortage, biodiversity loss, increased morbidity, displaced and disaster affected population, global economic disruption, wars and law and order situation for leftover resources of survival.

The international community has been striving for targeted reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and achieving the net zero economy since quite some time now. Paris Agreement adopted at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, in 2015 has been signed by 195 countries as of June, 2024.

With the objective to keep the global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the parties to the Paris Agreement are required to prepare emission reduction pledges, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Pakistan signed and ratified this agreement in 2016, committing its support to the cause of mitigating climate risk and submitted the latest NDC in 2022, which states that climate action is incorporated in its national vision 2025.

Since Paris agreement, 149 countries have submitted the NDCs as at 25 September 2023. The NDCs contain GHG reduction targets, which are economy-wide, covering a country’s entire economy and not limited to certain sectors only. The progress on NDCs however, remains dismal particularly from the top contributors to the global emissions. A synopsis of GHG Emissions (in Gega tonnes of Carbon Dioxide equivalent) and contribution of the major emitting economies in 2022 is given below.

The global GHG emissions are expected to reach 56 GtCO2e in 2035 in case of continuation of current policies, which is 36 per cent and 55 per cent higher than the levels consistent with below 2°C and 1.5°C pathways respectively without compensating for excess emissions. As per “Emissions Gap Report, 2023” by UNEP, it is likely that a continuation of current policies and NDC progress scenarios would result in widened and likely unbridgeable gaps in 2035.

Historic emissions and contribution to global warming vary significantly across countries and groups of countries. Nearly 80% of historical cumulative fossil and LULUCF CO2 emissions came from G20 countries, with the largest contributions from China, the United States of America and the European Union, while least developed countries contributed only 4%.

The United States of America accounts for 4% of current world population, but contributed 17% of global warming from 1850 to 2021.

Pakistan being among the developing countries has contributed a meagre 1% to the global emissions in 2022 and lesser historically (546 million tonnes emitted by Pakistan against 54 GtCO2e global emissions).Pakistan per capital GHG emissions stand at meagre 0.8 tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) as against the global average of 6.5 tCO2e whereas the G20 as a group averaged 7.9 tCO2 e, with major emitters like USA, Russia, EU at almost double of the global average.

Despite Pakistan’s diminutive contribution to global emissions at present as well as historically, Pakistan is the 5th most vulnerable country to the climate change as per Global Climate Risk Index by the Germanwatch. These events are already occurring as Pakistan has started suffering with more frequent and intense climate disasters such as five floods during 2010-2014 have resulted in monetary losses of over US$ 18 billion with 38.12 million people affected, 3.45 million houses damaged and 10.63 million acres of crops destroyed.

The catastrophic floods of 2022 put much of Pakistan under water, affecting over 30 million people during 2022 alone. Likewise, over 1200 people lost their lives due to the unprecedented heat wave in Karachi in 2015 whereas the heatwaves have become a regular in Pakistan leading to deaths of hundreds of people every summer.

During the week June 21 – 26, 2024, the Edhi Ambulance service reported that it has collected some 568 bodies - 141 of them on June 25, 2024 alone.

Other climate events such as famine, heat waves, wildfires have affected Africa and regions in the northern hemisphere.

The report finds that the world is far off track to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the most-ambitious target set out by the Paris Agreement. The impact of climate change will intensify with each fraction of rise in temperature as the current global impact is only at 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels of temperature and extreme weather events have already become frequent and intense worldwide.

Pakistan, in its NDCs submitted in 2021 states that it targets an ambitious 50% reduction of its projected emissions by 2030, with 15% from the country’s own resources and 35% subject to provision of international grant/finance that would require USD 101 billion just for energy transition from coal-based and traditional modes to renewable, green energy.

Expansion of nature-based solutions (NbS) by implementation of Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme (TBTTP), Recharge Pakistan, and Protected Areas Initiative (PAI) are other initiatives in this direction as per NDC, 2021.

Pakistan has made significant efforts in the climate finance front by introducing green financing, green bonds, stewardship guidelines encouraging institutional investors to steer investee companies towards sustainable and climate friendly operations, and focus on ESG disclosures for the listed companies.

The Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan has also issued ESG regulatory roadmap in June, 2022outlining actions such as disclosures, awareness, creating climate friendly and ESG focused products, all leading to overall impact assessment in a phased manner.

Even though response of the country towards climate change has been substantial and holistic encompassing national level commitment, actions and also the financial sector initiatives, the impact on the global emissions level will remain minimal due to negligible share of Pakistan in global emissions, i.e., less than 1%.

The major responsibility of climate action lies with the big emitters as their actions have significant impact on the global emission level and resultant climate change, the brunt of which has to be borne by the less developed regions like South Asia, Africa and northern hemisphere.

As per common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) principle of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, the indicated mitigation potential can only be realized through international support in the form of financial grants, technical assistance, technology development and transfer and capacity building.

The developed countries need to transform not only their own emissions trajectory, but also provide assistance and financial support to the developing countries and vulnerable communities to build resilience and risk reduction. Urgent and transformative action in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial system is required to manage the climate change disaster impact.

The G20 countries are responsible for 76 percent of global emissions, however, limited progress has been made on key indicators of net-zero implementation among G20 members. These include the existence and quality of implementation plans, and alignment of near-term emissions trajectories with net-zero target. Most importantly but alarmingly, none of the G20 members is currently reducing emissions at a pace consistent with meeting their net-zero targets.

This is high time for international community to realise the gravity of climate change situation and take required actions to reduce the pace of climate change. The survival of human and other species depends on it. It’s not an option, it’s the prerequisite for buying time from the mother-nature before it is too late to avoid the global economic disruption, wars, famines, disasters and extinction of the species.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024