Factors behind Trump’s 2024 victory

The 2024 US presidential election saw Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party suffer a significant defeat, with Donald Trump reclaiming the White House and Republicans taking control of the Senate. Key factors in Harris’s loss and Trump’s victory include:

1- Economic dissatisfaction

— 45 percent of voters felt worse off financially than four years ago, despite a strong stock market and low unemployment. Trump capitalized on this dissatisfaction, presenting himself as the solution for the struggling middle and working class.

2- Desire for change and strong leadership

— 75 percent of voters expressed dissatisfaction with the country’s direction. Trump’s focus on leadership and change resonated with 70 percent of voters, while Harris’s campaign struggled to offer a compelling vision and focused more on criticizing Trump.

3- Strategic alliances and financial support

— Trump gained significant financial backing, including over USD 119 million from figures like Elon Musk, boosting his appeal, especially among younger, tech-savvy voters.

4- Sympathy and resilience

— Trump’s survival of an assassination attempt in July 2024 enhanced his image as a resilient leader and champion of the working class.

5- Immigration and anti-”woke” policies

— Trump’s focus on border security and criticism of progressive “woke” policies strengthened his base, particularly in rural and southern states.

6- Demographic shifts

— Trump expanded his appeal to one-third of voters of colour and saw a 13-point increase among Latino voters, reflecting successful outreach efforts.

7- Rural and youth support

— Trump’s dominance in rural areas and increased support among young voters were the factors key to his victory in battleground states.

Republican Control of the Senate:

— The GOP gained key Senate seats in West Virginia and Ohio, strengthening their influence in Congress.

Key Factors in Harris’s Defeat:

1- Inherited unpopularity

— Harris inherited an unpopular administration with economic challenges and foreign policy issues. Her association with Biden made it difficult to separate herself from these problems.

2- Campaign strategy and messaging

— Harris’s campaign failed to offer a clear vision and largely focused on criticising Trump, rather than presenting solutions to issues like inflation and immigration.

3- Late entry into the race

— Harris entered the race late, leaving her with little time to build a strong campaign infrastructure, while Trump had a head start.

4- Economic concerns

— Harris’s alignment with Biden’s economic policies, including her statement that there was “not a thing” she would have done differently, eroded support among voters struggling financially.

5- Demographic shifts and voter turnout

— Harris underperformed with key demographic groups, particularly Black and Latino voters, and lost crucial suburban and rural areas to Trump.

6- Identity politics and backlash

— Harris’s identity as a woman of colour led to both energized support and significant backlash, particularly from those dissatisfied with her policies.

7- Foreign policy issues

— Harris’s stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict alienated pro-Palestinian voters and progressives, especially in swing states with significant Arab American populations.

8- Media perception and public image

— Harris faced criticism for her perceived evasiveness in interviews and reliance on celebrity endorsements, echoing Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign tactics.

9- Voter fatigue and disillusionment

— Disillusionment among key Democratic groups, particularly Black women, led to lower enthusiasm and voter turnout.

10- Trump’s effective strategy

— Trump capitalised on Harris’s weaknesses, focusing on economic concerns and immigration, while rallying his base in critical battleground states.

Trump’s potential policies for a second term:

1- Foreign policy

— Trump is expected to take a more assertive stance, aiming to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, with an emphasis on strong pro-Israel policies and a “maximum pressure” approach toward Iran.

2- Economic policy

— Trump’s economic policies will likely focus on further tax cuts, deregulation, and protectionist trade policies, continuing his “America First” agenda. He may also roll back environmental regulations and boost fossil fuel production.

3- Immigration

— Trump is expected to pursue stricter immigration policies, including further border security and potential reinstatement of controversial policies like family separation.

4- Healthcare

— Continued efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and cuts to welfare programs like Medicare and Medicaid are anticipated.

5- Environmental policy

— Further rollbacks of environmental regulations and potential withdrawal from international climate agreements are likely.

6- Judicial appointments

— Trump will likely continue appointing conservative judges, including to the Supreme Court, reshaping the federal judiciary.

7- Global economic and political impact

— Trump’s “America First” stance will likely create tensions with allies and continue to focus on bilateral agreements, which could strain global trade and diplomacy.

8- Domestic political realignment

— Trump’s victory signals a shift in the US political landscape, particularly with working-class and disillusioned voters, which could further polarize the electorate.

9- Cultural and technological shifts

— Trump will continue using social media to bypass traditional media, fuelling polarization. His cultural policies will resonate with conservatives, but may alienate younger, progressive voters.

Trump’s return to office will bring a continuation of policies that shaped his first term, with potential global and domestic ramifications, particularly in trade, foreign policy, and the political landscape.

Caveat

Beyond politics: How Technology, AI, and Globalization Will Shape the Future

Who will shape the future of America, the global economy, and society? Will it be political leaders like Trump?

The future will be shaped by forces far beyond traditional politics, with real transformative power lying in science, technology, globalization, and brainpower development. Political leaders, constrained by bureaucracy and often playing reactive roles, are becoming like actors in a staged drama—no longer the primary drivers of change. Instead, the world’s progress is now primarily fuelled by the rapid advances in technology and the cognitive evolution of humanity.

In particular, we are on the cusp of a new era dominated by generative artificial intelligence, a development that has already exceeded timelines predicted by futurists and technologists. We initially anticipated that transformative AI agents would emerge more prominently by mid-2025, but they have already begun to make their debut.

AI-powered tools are now capable of tasks once thought to be exclusive to highly skilled professionals. For instance, the emergence of AI Software Engineers—software that can autonomously write and debug code—heralds a new age where technology builds itself, potentially creating millions of digital “engineers” who can exponentially increase innovation and productivity.

Autonomous robots and advancements in artificial general intelligence (AGI) are poised to redefine the role of workers, with Starlink and other satellite networks revolutionizing connectivity, even in the most remote parts of the world. This connectivity will not only increase access to information but will also drive the democratization of knowledge, skills, and resources on an unprecedented scale, breaking down geographical and socio-economic barriers.

The leaders who grasp these transformative dynamics—those who understand that true power lies in leveraging these revolutionary technologies—will be able to guide their people toward prominence on the global stage.

They must recognize that the integration of these tools is not merely about economic or technological advancement but about fundamentally reshaping societal structures, workforce dynamics, and even international relations. A leader’s vision, in this context, must be one of adaptability and foresight, embracing technological acceleration rather than fearing it.

Thus, the future will not belong to those who cling to the past or attempt to maintain control through traditional means. It will belong to those who see science and technology as an extension of human capability, globalization as an opportunity for collaborative progress, and brainpower development as the next frontier of human evolution. Leaders who can harness these forces will not only transform their countries but will also shape the world.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024