Over the past two and a half years, the prime minister and his motley crew of reformers have spent a considerable amount of time convincing Pakistanis that the fundamentals of global geopolitics have shifted, which is why “this time must be different because Pakistan does not have a choice”. Unfortunately, when the obituary for the current political regime is written, a different catchphrase of this regime shall define its failures: they knew the ‘why’ but could not figure out the ‘how’.
Whether it is the failure of PIA privatization or the captive power disconnection fiasco looming on the horizon, the lack of direction plaguing the ruling elite has become dramatically apparent in just last week. A charitable review of policy statements by the current government since it came to power must give them credit for consistently showing willingness to bring structural reforms. Unfortunately, in the absence of meaningful policy action, a constant demonstration of willingness makes the lack of capacity ever more glaring with every passing hour.
If there is one thing this government cannot complain about, it is political space to carry out its reform agenda, provided it has one. Outside of martial laws, never in the country’s history has a political setup enjoyed such an overt buy-in from the establishment, nor such a pliant opposition. Compared to the romance of SIFC – now in its third year, ‘Same Page 1.0’ can only be termed a toxic rebound. The characters in this love story have been in and out of many relationships – civilian supremacy, judicial overreach, direct military rule – but finally seem to have settled for their first crush. The lead actors might lack flamboyancy and star power, but everyone has now been convinced that they two were meant to end up together.
Similarly, although bilateral partners such as GCC countries may no longer be as generous with bailouts as in the past, the marathon of foreign trips to catalyze FDI by MoUs Incorporated is also unprecedented in the country’s history. The red carpet rolled out each time the prime minister visits foreign partners as diverse as KSA, Qatar, UAE, China, Türkiye, and even Azerbaijan, is probably the envy of his elder brother, the original darling of sovereign and regional investors. Meanwhile, the great volatility of 2020 – 2023 – marked by global pandemic, inflation, and conflict is also largely behind us.
Which begs the question, what has handicapped the incumbents so badly that 2.5 years into their rule, they have failed to implement even one major reform? It is not because of fear of public backlash. The suffering among ordinary Pakistanis after the Great Inflation Run of 2021-24 is so significant, so historic, and so unprecedented, that even religious forces have failed to bring out protestors over an emotive issue as resonant as Palestine.
The Gen-Z protestors of PTI might believe in manifesting a popular revolution by repeating it ad nauseum. The truth, however, is that the back of ordinary Pakistanis has been broken so firmly and so comprehensively over the last four years that they no longer dare speak up. Sell PIA, shut down Steel Mill, brick the walls of Utility Stores – you will not hear a peep. There is no Dhaka redux in the making.
The naked truth is – the courts have been stacked, the parliamentarians have fallen in line, foreign partners have their backs, and the public has been taught to behave. The incumbent hybrid setup in Pakistan has a real shot at instilling lasting reforms that can successfully reshape the structure of the economy permanently. If it instead goes down the road of stimulating growth, only to crash and burn again, maybe Pakistan’s ruling and intellectual elites can forever put an end to their perpetual rants about lack of ‘stability’, ‘political space’, ‘same page’, and ‘consistency’.
You had it. And you wasted it.
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