Crude production from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia has declined in compliance with OPEC+ production cuts, supporting a modest near term upside to Brent prices, Goldman Sachs said.
Saudi Arabia is more likely to extend oil production cuts because of the recent price drop and we now think that oil production cuts will last until April 2025 instead of January, the investment bank said in a note dated Tuesday.
Goldman Sachs maintained its average Brent price forecast for 2025 at $76 per barrel.
OPEC+, which includes members of the OPEC and allies such as Russia, is discussing a further delay to a planned oil output hike that was due to start in January, two sources from the group said.
At its most recent meeting on Nov. 3, OPEC+ agreed to delay a planned December output increase by a month.
“Any ramp-up in OPEC+ production will be gradual and data-driven,” the bank said.
Goldman added that rising compliance with OPEC+ production cuts suggests that the group’s member countries are working together to stabilize oil prices.
Production from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia declined by 0.5 million barrels per day in November, Goldman said.
Oil prices steady with focus on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, OPEC+ policy
OPEC member countries are unlikely to unwind voluntary production cuts in the short term, executives of global commodity trading giants Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London.
However, despite OPEC+’s production cuts and delays to output hikes, Brent futures have mostly stayed in a $70-$80 range this year, and were trading below $74 on Tuesday.
Last week, Goldman Sachs revised Brent prices to average around $80 per barrel this year, despite a 2024 deficit and geopolitical uncertainty, citing an anticipated surplus in 2025.
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