MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is likely to weaken past 84.50 per US dollar to an all-time low on Monday due to further declines in Asian currencies and data showing that growth in Asia’s third-largest economy slowed more than expected in the September quarter.
The one-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open at 84.58-84.60, compared with its close of 84.4825 in the previous session and below its lifetime low of 84.5075 from two weeks back.
The Reserve Bank of India has been defending the 84.50 level quite aggressively in recent sessions and “if we do move past that at open, it would be significant,” a currency trader at a bank said.
“You would expect that the RBI will be making its presence felt immediately to, sort of, just provide reassurance.”
India’s economic growth slowed much more than expected in the third quarter, which is likely to add pressure on the RBI to cut rates. India’s GDP rose by 5.4% in July-September year-on-year, the slowest pace in seven quarters and below a Reuters poll of 6.5%.
That testifies India’s cyclical slowdown is sharper than expected, ANZ Bank said in a note.
“The December rate cut is back on the table,” it said. Before the data, the RBI was expected to hold rates at its policy meeting on Friday.
Indian rupee slips in NDF market amid US election updates
A rate cut would “compound” the pressure on the rupee, already reeling from equity outflows and the volatility fuelled by Donald Trump’s US election victory, the currency trader said.
Trump, on Saturday, demanded that BRICS member countries commit to not creating a new currency or supporting another currency that would replace the dollar, or face 100% tariffs.
Asian currencies were down, with the offshore yuan slipping past 7.27 per dollar.
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