CANBERRA: Australia raised its national 2024/25 wheat harvest estimate by 60,000 metric tons to 31.9 million tons on Tuesday, with good yields in the east and west forecast to compensate for losses in the south to deliver above-average production.
A bigger wheat harvest from Australia, which is one of the world’s biggest exporters, will increase global supply at a time when prices are near four-year lows.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), part of the agriculture ministry, also said the country would produce about 500,000 tons less barley and 100,000 tons more canola than it thought three months ago.
“Higher production in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia is expected to mostly offset reduced production and crop losses in large parts of south-eastern Australia caused by persistent dryness and widespread severe frosts,” ABARES said in its quarterly report.
Frosts and dry weather caused private-sector analysts to slash their wheat production estimates, but results from the harvest, which is in full swing, have exceeded expectations.
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ABARES estimates that the 2024/25 wheat crop will be 23% larger than the previous season’s and 20% above the 10-year average to 2023/24.
Australia should produce 11.7 million tons of barley in 2024/25, 8% more than in 2023/24 and 3% above the 10-year average, and 5.6 million tons of canola, 8% less than last season but 23% above the 10-year average, ABARES said.
In early September, ABARES forecast production in 2024/25 of 31.8 million tons of wheat, 12.2 million tons of barley and 5.5 million tons of canola.
ABARES said, however, that the latest weather forecasts from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology predict above-median rainfall across most cropping areas in December.
“If realised, rainfall across eastern cropping regions will likely interrupt the harvest of remaining winter crops and may cause grain quality downgrades,” it said.
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