“Thousands have lived without love, not one without water.” - W.H. Auden, “First Things First” The Indus River, a grand artery that stretches over 3,000 kilometres from Tibet to the Arabian Sea, is far more than a geographical feature for Pakistan - it is the lifeblood of the nation.
Nourishing the fertile plains of Punjab and Sindh, the river provides sustenance to millions, irrigates farmlands, and powers the country’s fragile agrarian economy.
For decades, the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960, brokered by the World Bank, has been the fragile diplomatic shield guarding this essential resource. But with India’s recent calls to rework the treaty, Pakistan now finds itself navigating an alarming water crisis that could deepen already fraught relations with its neighbour.
The Indus Water Treaty: A fragile compromise
Signed in 1960, the Indus Water Treaty is often hailed as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in modern history, particularly because it has withstood three wars between Pakistan and India.
Under the treaty, India was given control over the three eastern rivers - Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej - while Pakistan retained rights over the three western rivers - Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India, however, was allowed limited use of the western rivers for agriculture, power generation, and non-consumptive uses, provided that it did not significantly alter the flow of water into Pakistan.
For Pakistan, the treaty was more than just an agreement; it was a lifeline. The country’s agriculture depends almost entirely on the Indus River system. More than 90% of Pakistan’s food production comes from irrigated land fed by these rivers. With an economy and food security tied so intimately to these waters, any disruption - intentional or otherwise - could lead to a great deal of loss for the nation.
India’s push to rework the Treaty
In recent years, India has increasingly voiced its dissatisfaction with the Indus Water Treaty. Officials in New Delhi have argued that the treaty ‘’unfairly favours’’ Pakistan, limiting India’s ability to exploit its own natural resources.
The Indian government has also pointed to rising water needs due to its burgeoning population and the impact of climate change as factors that necessitate a rethinking of the treaty’s provisions.
More alarmingly, water has increasingly become a tool in the wider political chess game between the two nations. Following the 2016 Uri attack by militants in Indian- held Kashmir – which India held Pakistan responsible for - India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi famously declared, “Blood and water cannot flow together.” This marked a significant shift in India’s posture toward the treaty.
In the years since, India has stepped up its construction of dams and hydropower projects on the western rivers, which Pakistan holds violate the spirit, if not the letter, of the Indus Water Treaty.
By reworking the treaty, India aims to gain greater control over the Indus River system, particularly for hydroelectric power projects in the disputed region of Kashmir. The Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects in particular have been points of contention. It is feared that these projects will allow India to manipulate water flows, potentially depriving Pakistan of vital water resources during critical agricultural seasons.
There has been a great push for this recently, with New Delhi calling for changes and reworking of the Indus Water Treaty earlier this year, granting India greater freedom to use the water of the rivers and, thus, control the flow.
Pakistan’s stance: Where does the current lead?
For Pakistan, any changes to the Indus Water Treaty represent a significant threat. The country already faces severe water scarcity, and its per capita water availability has dropped to alarming levels, edging dangerously close to the threshold for “absolute scarcity” as defined by the United Nations. Pakistan’s population, now over 250 million, continues to grow, further straining an already overburdened water system.
The fear in Islamabad is that India’s increased control over the western rivers could give it the ability to effectively turn off Pakistan’s water tap, either by diverting water during times of conflict or by strategically storing it during critical periods of Pakistan’s growing season. This fear is compounded by the fact that Pakistan has no alternative sources of water on a scale even remotely comparable to the Indus system.
Pakistan has consistently argued that any attempts by India to rework the treaty are not only unfair but dangerous. Islamabad has warned that tampering with the water-sharing agreement could escalate tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. To Pakistan, the Indus Water Treaty is not just about water - it is a safeguard against conflict. Any disruption to the flow of the Indus could lead to catastrophic food shortages, economic shrinkage, and even spark a broader confrontation between the two nations.
The importance of the issue: More than just water
“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.” — Martin Luther King Jr.
The Indus Water Treaty is a pillar of regional stability. It has endured for more than six decades precisely because it established a clear framework for managing a resource that is vital to both nations. But water scarcity is not an issue confined to Pakistan and India; it is a global crisis that is worsening by the day.
As climate change accelerates, glaciers that feed the Indus River are melting at unprecedented rates, altering the river’s flow patterns. This environmental threat makes the need for cooperation between India and Pakistan even more pressing.
For Pakistan, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With the country’s agricultural output tied to a reliable and consistent water supply, any significant change to the Indus Water Treaty could have dire consequences. Entire industries, from textiles to food production, depend on the waters of the Indus. Cities and towns across the country rely on the river for drinking water and sanitation. A disruption in the river’s flow would not only lead to economic downturn but could spark a humanitarian crisis.
Furthermore, the water issue intersects with Pakistan’s broader geopolitical concerns. Kashmir, a disputed region claimed by both India and Pakistan, plays a pivotal role in the Indus water debate.
Most of the rivers that feed Pakistan flow through Indian-occupied Kashmir, giving India a strategic advantage in controlling the water supply. Pakistan views any Indian attempt to build dams or other water infrastructure in Kashmir as a direct threat to its sovereignty.
The road ahead: Diplomacy or disaster?
The Indus Water Treaty has survived wars, political upheaval and governmental changes and is hailed as one of, if not the, most successful documents of its type in the world.
However, it is now facing its toughest test yet. India’s push to rework the treaty, coupled with the realities of climate change, threatens to unravel one of the few success stories in Pakistan-India relations. If the two nations cannot find a way to address their differences diplomatically, there could be far-reaching consequences not just for Pakistan but for the entire region.
For Pakistan, the strategy moving forward must be clear. It needs to continue engaging with India through diplomatic channels, emphasizing the need for cooperation and mutual survival.
At the same time, Pakistan must also invest in water conservation, efficient irrigation techniques, and new water storage infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of water scarcity. Most importantly, Pakistan must rally international support, underscoring the dangers that a water war between two nuclear-armed neighbours would pose to global peace and security.
The Indus River, like the blood in Pakistan’s veins, is irreplaceable. Its flow must be protected at all costs, for without it, the nation’s future hangs in the balance.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
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