SINGAPORE: Asian stocks wobbled on Friday while the dollar was steady, keeping the yen rooted near five-month lows in thin year-end trading as investors looked ahead to 2025, when the Federal Reserve is expected to be measured in its interest rate cuts.
The Bank of Japan on the other hand could raise rates in the near-term, with the summary of opinions at the bank’s December meeting released on Friday keeping alive the chance of a January hike. The BOJ had chosen to stand pat in its December meeting.
That has left the yen loitering around levels last seen in July.
On Friday, it was little changed at 157.80 per dollar, taking its losses for the year against the dollar to over 10% in 2024, its fourth straight year of decline.
The currency has been under pressure from a strong dollar and a wide interest rate gap that persists despite the Fed’s rate cuts, with traders wary of another bout of intervention from Tokyo as the yen approaches 160 levels.
Over in stocks, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, was slightly higher at 574.88, on course for nearly 9% gain this year. Japan’s Nikkei, rose 0.77% due to a weak yen, set for 19% rise in 2024.
China’s blue-chip CSI300 Index, was little changed in early trading while the Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, was 0.12% higher following a holiday on Thursday.
“There’s obviously a lull at the moment and barring an extreme surprise the markets are probably going to lack direction,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
With only a handful of trading days remaining in the year, investor focus has switched to 2025, with the Fed’s policy path, the incoming Trump administration and its tariff-related policies and geopolitical worries in the spotlight.
Dollar stays resilient, Asia shares get festive lift
The Fed jolted the markets earlier this month as it lowered rates by 25 basis points but projected just two rate cuts next year, down from four cuts it had projected in September.
Traders are pricing in 37 bps of easing next year with the next cut fully priced in for June.
“Simply put, if the markets can feel comfortable with the notion of two cuts from the Fed next and that’s subsequently backed by goldilocks data once trading conditions normalise, then the bull market may have more legs,” said Rodda.
The shifting expectations around U.S. rates have led 10-year Treasury yield to its highest since early May. It was last at 4.57% in Asian hours.
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. unit against six other large peers, was at 108.11, not far from the two year high it touched last week.
In commodities, gold prices eased to $2,631.34 per ounce, but were set for about 28% rise for the year, their strongest yearly performance since 2011.
Oil prices were lower in early trading. Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude were both 0.1% lower.
Comments