LONDON: New York cocoa futures rose sharply on Monday, regaining some ground after falling sharply last week, while arabica coffee prices fell. New York cocoa futures on ICE rose 2.7% to $10,393 a metric ton by 1202 GMT, recovering some ground after falling sharply late last week.
Dealers said the recent sell-off had been driven partly by system funds and fundamentals remained supportive with the possibility of a fourth consecutive global deficit in the current 2024/25 season. Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached 1.054 million metric tons by Dec. 29 since the start of the season on Oct. 1, up 27.4% from the same period last season, exporters estimated on Monday.
A slowdown in port arrivals is, however, anticipated in early 2025 with dry weather set to curb production. London cocoa rose 2.3% to 8,306 pounds a ton.
Arabica coffee futures lost 1% to $3.1435 per lb. Prices have fallen back after hitting a record high of $3.4835 on Dec. 10. Dealers said the focus remained on the extent to which a drought this year will curb production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season. Cocoa futures closed lower but ended the week with gains of more than 6% that drove the commodity to record highs. Raw sugar closed higher after six consecutive sessions of losses.
New York cocoa futures on ICE settled down $153, or 1.3%, to $11,954 a metric ton. The contract rose 7% in the week. The market climbed to a record high of $12,931 on Wednesday.
Dealers said the market continued to derive support from a diminishing outlook for production in top growers Ivory Coast and Ghana, with the potential for a fourth consecutive global deficit in the 2024/25 season. Robusta coffee fell 1.1% to $4,897 a ton. Arabica coffee futures on ICE settled up 1.25 cents, or 0.4%, at $3.25 per lb as the focus remained on the outlook for next year’s crop in Brazil following a drought this year.
Brazil’s coffee crop is expected to reach 62.45 million 60-kg bags in 2025/26, a preliminary forecast released by agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado showed on Friday, which would represent a 5% drop from the previous season.
The agribusiness consultancy said arabica coffee production was seen slipping 15% to 38.35 million bags, while robusta output should hit 24.10 million bags. Forecasts for next year’s arabica crop in Brazil have varied widely. Earlier this month, Volcafe forecast the arabica crop would total just 34.4 million bags, while TRS by Expana projected a crop of 43 million bags. Robusta coffee fell 0.9% to $5,002 a ton.
Raw sugar rose 0.5% to 19.47 cents per lb, edging further away from last week’s three-month low of 19.17 cents. Brazil’s Sao Martinho said it had crushed 21.8 million tons of sugarcane from the 2024/25 crop, down 1.7% from the previous season. Sugar production, however, rose by 0.7% to 1.329 million tons.
London cocoa fell 1.8% to 9,492 pounds per ton. This year’s record surge in prices has been fuelled by the exit of hedge funds that had oiled the workings of the cocoa market.
Raw sugar settled up 0.11 cents, or 0.6%, at 19.51 cents per lb, hovering just above the prior session’s three-month low of 19.26 cents.
The contract lost 5.8% in the week amid a positive outlook for crops in the Northern Hemisphere and the record currency depreciation in top grower Brazil that is said to have driven a good amount of hedging (sales) from mills. March white sugar rose 0.2% at $510.40 a ton. The contract lost 3.3% in the week.
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