Uraan Pakistan: if wishes were horses

The Uraan Pakistan seems more like a wish list than a practical roadmap, listing ambitious growth targets without detailing how to achieve them. This is not the first time such lofty plans have been introduced. In 2010 and again in 2015, similar aspirations were announced, with exports expected to reach $150 billion by 2025.

Now, the aim is to transform Pakistan into a $3 trillion economy by 2047. As the saying goes, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

Yet, beggars cannot be choosers. The critical question remains: how can Pakistan reconcile the Uraan goals with the constraints of the IMF framework? Skepticism is already brewing among experts in DC about Pakistan’s ability to stay within the IMF programme without adhering to its stringent benchmarks—especially as global economic dynamics have shifted. While the IMF has shown some leniency recently, this cannot be counted on indefinitely.

The Uraan document, prepared by the Planning Commission, appears disconnected from earlier homegrown strategies devised by seasoned Belgian-British economist Stefan Dercon. His approach emphasized structural reforms, including rationalizing trade tariffs, broadening the tax base, and enhancing competitiveness by empowering the private sector. Growth, in that vision, was a consequence of reform—not the other way around.

In contrast, the Uraan Programme focuses on growth while largely ignoring the critical need for foundational reforms. History shows that growth spurts without reforms are unsustainable, often leading to economic crises. A reform-first strategy is essential for long-term stability and prosperity.

Achieving a 6 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) could undermine the fragile stability that Pakistan has worked hard to secure. Such growth would strain the balance of payments and ripple through the economy, a reality the finance minister himself acknowledged during the programme’s launch. His speech stressed the necessity of reforms to convert stability into sustainable growth, signaling his reservations about the Planning Commission’s document.

Another glaring issue is the lack of alignment and ownership among key stakeholders. The absence of representation from PPP (Pakistan People’s Party) leaders, SIFC (Special Investment Facilitation Council) officials, and influential cabinet members at the event suggests weak buy-in from critical players. This disconnect raises doubts about the feasibility of attracting investments, a cornerstone for the Uraan Programme’s ambitious growth targets.

PML-N leadership appears eager to rekindle high growth, likely driven by the desire for quick wins. While the immediate threat of default has been averted, the government’s strategy lacks focus on employment generation and long-term reforms, despite the IMF not exerting significant pressure on this front. Their urgency is puzzling, given the four years they had to prepare.

The Uraan projections also seem misaligned with IMF expectations. The plan envisions annual growth of 6 percent alongside a four-percentage-point increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio, reaching 13.5 percent. But how can economic development and taxation surge in tandem, especially when political pressures prevent modest taxation reforms?

Fiscal consolidation and debt reduction are crucial for sustainable growth. Yet, the government’s strategy to boost development spending for rapid growth seems incompatible with these goals. Trying to have it all—high growth, increased spending, and IMF compliance—reflects either a lack of seriousness about the Uraan Programme or insufficient commitment to reform.

Nobel laureate Milton Friedman had famously said through the title of one of his books containing essays on public policy by him: “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” Pakistan faces tough choices: pursue genuine reforms and a sustainable growth path or chase fleeting economic highs that may lead to long-term instability. The Uraan Programme must be more than wishful thinking—it needs to be a serious, actionable plan rooted in realism and reform.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025