BANGKOK: Thailand’s exports are expected to rise 1% to 3% in 2025, unchanged from a previous forecast, with trade wars and geopolitical issues a major risk, the national shippers’ council said on Tuesday.
For 2024, the group expects export growth of 4.5% to 5%, up from a 4% rise projected earlier.
Exports, a key driver of Thailand’s economy, rose 8.2% in November from a year earlier and increased an annual 5.1% in the first 11 months of 2024.
“Exports in 2024 should be somewhat worry-free … but 2025 is more exciting as there are many risk factors,” council chairman Chaichan Chareonsuk told a press conference.
“The trade war is certainly the main risk. The geopolitical war is not over yet,” he added. Exports might increase 1% to 2% in the first quarter of 2025 but US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies would need to be monitored, Chaichan said.
Council Vice Chairman Suparp Suwanpimolkul said the group was hoping Thailand’s central bank would cut interest rates in the first quarter to help ease the interest burden of smaller businesses.
“The baht may also be too strong if we don’t cut interest rates,” he added. The baht was little changed at 34.6 per dollar on Tuesday after reaching its lowest level in six weeks on Monday.
Thai exports seen up 1% to 2% this year, shippers’ group says
Last month, the central bank left its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, after a surprise cut in the previous review in October.
On Monday, the central bank said maintaining interest rates was a robust policy amid high uncertainty, but it was ready to adjust the policy if the economic outlook changed.
The next rate review is on Feb. 26.
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