Why Does Trump want to occupy Greenland?

President-elect Donald Trump has made his expansionist ideology loud and clear. Among his many controversial proposals, he has shown a keen interest in acquiring Greenland, a move he has described as vital for the United States, regardless of Greenlanders’ wishes or potential European Union and NATO responses. This sudden focus on Greenland raises questions about its timing and significance, particularly as it coincides with increasing Russian and Chinese activities in the Arctic region.

Russia has aggressively militarized its Arctic territory, reopening Soviet-era bases and establishing new installations equipped with advanced radar systems, missile platforms, and air defense systems like the S-400. The Northern Fleet, Russia’s Arctic naval powerhouse, includes nuclear-powered submarines, icebreakers, and warships that regularly patrol the Arctic and conduct large-scale exercises.

These efforts aim to secure Russia’s territorial claims and protect the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a vital corridor for global trade and energy exports. Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic underline its intent to assert dominance over resources and strategic shipping lanes, heightening tensions with NATO and Arctic nations.

China, though not an Arctic state, has steadily expanded its influence in the region through its Polar Silk Road initiative, a component of its Belt and Road strategy. Operating advanced research icebreakers like the Xuelong series, China frames its Arctic activities as scientific research.

However, these missions often have dual-use implications, providing insights into resource exploitation and potential military applications. China’s collaboration with Russia on energy projects, such as the Yamal LNG initiative, demonstrates its long-term commitment to Arctic resource extraction.

Additionally, China’s investments in Greenlandic infrastructure and mining have raised concerns about its strategic ambitions, particularly as it seeks to gain leverage over critical rare earth minerals and shipping lanes.

Greenland, the world’s largest island, spans over 2.2 million square kilometers and is located strategically between the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. An autonomous territory of Denmark, Greenland’s sparse population of approximately 56,000 is concentrated in towns like Nuuk, its capital.

Greenland’s maritime significance lies in its position at the crossroads of emerging Arctic shipping lanes, including the National Security SR and Northwest Passage. These routes are becoming increasingly viable due to melting ice caused by climate change, offering faster and more efficient alternatives to traditional trade routes like the Suez Canal.

Trump’s interest in Greenland aligns with broader geopolitical shifts in the Arctic. The region’s accessibility has increased due to climate change, opening opportunities for shipping, resource extraction, and military positioning. Greenland’s location makes it a valuable asset in the competition for Arctic dominance.

This interest also reflects US concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, as both nations seek to expand their influence in the Arctic. For the US, Greenland’s proximity to its Thule Air Base underscores its strategic importance in missile defense, surveillance, and Arctic operations.

Russia’s Arctic strategy includes both overt and covert measures to expand its influence. Militarization, control of the NSR, and resource dominance are key components. Russia’s investments in Arctic infrastructure, coupled with hybrid warfare tactics like disinformation campaigns, aim to undermine Western influence and solidify its global power.

Similarly, China’s Arctic ambitions reflect a mix of economic and strategic goals. In the short term, China has invested in Greenland’s mining sector and in the long term, China seeks to dominate Arctic resources, leverage shipping routes, and expand its geopolitical reach through dual-use infrastructure and strategic partnerships.

Canada, sharing Arctic interests with Greenland and Denmark, adopts a collaborative approach. It prioritizes sovereignty, security, and environmental sustainability while fostering Indigenous welfare. Through North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and NATO, Canada works to address Arctic security concerns, including Russian and Chinese activities.

It also engages in resource management and sustainable development, ensuring that economic activities respect Indigenous rights and environmental protections. Canada’s Arctic policies reflect a commitment to peaceful cooperation and stability in the region.

The opening of Arctic trade routes would be a game-changer for global commerce, offering significant economic benefits. For the US, shortened shipping times and reduced fuel costs could save approximately $75 billion annually. Europe would achieve similar gains, benefiting from faster access to Asian markets.

China, as the world’s largest exporter, stands to save an estimated $450 billion annually by leveraging Arctic routes for streamlined trade. Canada could save approximately $36 billion annually in shipping efficiencies, while Russia, controlling the NSR, would save $32 billion annually and generate additional revenues from passage fees and Arctic trade-related activities.

Beyond trade, the Arctic’s untapped natural resources amplify its economic significance. The US and Canada could expand resource extraction, bolstering their economies and reducing reliance on foreign supplies. Russia, already dominating Arctic energy exports, could increase its influence by tapping into additional reserves and controlling the NSR’s economic lifeline. For China, access to Arctic resources would diversify its supply chain and secure critical raw materials needed for technology and energy sectors.

Strategically, Arctic trade routes and resources elevate the geopolitical stakes for all stakeholders. For the U.S. and NATO allies, securing Arctic trade routes strengthens global competitiveness and reinforces strategic presence. Russia’s dominance over the NSR allows it to regulate passage fees and assert power over global trade. Canada’s Arctic location positions it as a key player in trade and resource management, while China’s Polar Silk Road initiative underscores its ambitions to influence global commerce and establish a foothold in the Arctic.

However, Trump’s hawkish approach toward Greenland, characterized by public declarations and a perceived disregard for diplomatic norms, has raised tensions unnecessarily. A more prudent strategy would have been to pursue negotiations and economic partnerships with Greenland and Denmark, leveraging shared concerns over Russian and Chinese activities.

The US could have offered investments in infrastructure and resource development to counterbalance Chinese influence while framing its interests as aligned with Greenland’s economic and environmental goals. By using diplomacy and economic incentives, Trump could have secured strategic advantages in the Arctic without alienating allies or destabilizing international relations, achieving long-term objectives more discreetly and effectively.

(The writer has served as Press Secretary to the President, Press Minister at Embassy of Pakistan to France and MD, SRBC)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025