One more time, US President-elect Donald Trump has seemingly triumphed where President Joe Biden failed – securing a ceasefire in Gaza.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu succeeded in humiliating his old friend Biden one final time on the global stage, just days before he is set to leave office.
Analysts, pundits and officials across the board are crediting the inclusion of Trump’s negotiating team in helping moving the needle along and getting a deal across the finish line.
Notably, the parameters of the agreement are similar to the final draft presented by outgoing President Biden in May last year, one that Hamas had also agreed to, only to be rebuffed by Israel.
“The dramatic development, just five days before the transfer of power in the United States, cut against the natural grain in Washington, where presidents of opposing parties rarely work in tandem during a transition, even in the face of a major crisis,” wrote The New York Times.
The ceasefire comes into effect on January 19, a day before the presidential inauguration – in a conflict that had since expanded to include Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and threatened a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran.
A year-long atrocity with no end in sight
So what changed.
Last month, Trump soon after being elected issued an apparent warning to Hamas, threatening “hell to pay” if hostages held in Gaza are not released by the time he returns to the White House on January 20.
For those reading and watching closely, this veiled threat was also levelled at Netanyahu and his right-wing rabids who have skillfully scuttled peaceful negotiations and managed to dance a jig around Biden for over 15 months now.
“This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies,” wrote Trump on Truth Social, not shortly after the ceasefire was announced.
Trump had dispatched his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to join the negotiations in Doha, and Witkoff was there for the last 96 hours of talks leading up to the deal.
Trump is famously also is not a wartime president. He is not considered a member of the Democratic war cabal (Hillary Clinton, Anthony Blinken, Joe Biden) – instead has advocated for reducing the American footprint in conflicts around the world, and to focus inwards.
Trump also campaigned on the promise of winding down the wars in both Gaza and Ukraine.
This is not without precedent.
During his previous term, he vociferously advocated for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan – “America’s forever war”, which Biden inherited and carried out during his tenure.
That hasty exit was a resounding failure, resulting in the deaths of young US Marines and a Taliban takeover following almost immediately.
Trump has also previously advocated for NATO allies picking up their weight in aid to countries, in an effort to reducing the US war bill.
Late last night, both presidents came out separately and took credit for the historic pause, but nobody was fooled.
At the end of his magnanimous press conference, a reporter threw out a question at President Biden, “Who got the deal done, you or President Trump?”
“Is that a joke?” retorted Biden as he turned around.
No, Mr. Biden, the genocide, infanticide, ecocide and scholasticide of over 2 million people for a continuous 15 months is most definitely not a joke.
That, paired with an unfettered supply of arms and blanket impunity for Israel certainly gives room for the world to wonder, why the ceasefire took this long.
The American taxpayers and the global community have every right to ask.
Biden’s magnum opus: the US stood and watched as Netanyahu lit Middle East on fire
The Israeli aggression in Gaza has so far killed over 46,000 people with thousands still buried under the rubble, displaced millions and caused a hunger crisis.
For the record, this agreement came about without any pressure applied, of withholding of funds or arms, raising more suspicion about its timing.
Biden also carried out his farewell address from the Oval Office just hours after.
For now, the onus lies with President-elect Trump.
What will the Middle East now look like under a Trump presidency?
Could he possibly make this arc of his presidency his capstone and legacy?
Will he succeed where every US President before him has failed? – Finally achieve a lasting peace between Israel and Palestine?
Only former President Jimmy Carter came famously close, charting out The Camp David Accords signed by himself, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin in September 1978, establishing a framework for a historic peace treaty between Israel and Egypt.
Or is the ceasefire a precursor for more horror?
Yair Rosenberg, a columnist at The Atlantic, offered an alternate, more sinister disposition.
“Its not that Trump had a stick with which to beat Israel that Biden didn’t have; its that his presidency holds out the prospect of carrots that Biden would never offer. It was less than president elect’s pressure than his potential promise that brought the Israeli far right onside,” he wrote on Thursday.
He is of course referring to the annexation of the West Bank which the Israeli right wing is salivating over and which the Palestinians claim for their future state.
If this is even a mere possibility, then it is also not without precedent.
A staunch ally of Israel, during his last term, Trump was responsible for moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli authority over the (occupied) Golan Heights and presiding over diplomatic openings between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco under the The Abraham Accords.
Saudi Arabia, which was poised to follow suit, paused following Israel’s bombardment of Gaza.
The Kingdom has since called for “the complete withdrawal of the Israeli occupation forces from the (Gaza) Strip and all other Palestinian and Arab territories and the return of the displaced to their areas” – a position echoed by all Gulf nations.
“Donald Trump may have the soul of a bully, but he also has the instincts of a dealmaker — and a yearning for acclaim, including the Nobel Peace Prize he thinks he was denied for the Abraham Accords,” wrote Brett Stephens in The New York Times on Thursday.
Where the Palestinians go from here remains to be seen. Whether this was a toll of temporary relief paid only to pave the way for a more grandiose plan, only time will tell.
Either way, the next stage has the power to shape the Middle East for years to come, for better or for worse.
For now, the world looks forward to silence over the skies of Gaza.
The article does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Recorder or its owners
The writer is Life & Style Editor at Business Recorder
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