Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for US natural gas prices to $3.60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) from $3.00 for 2025, reflecting tighter gas balances this winter due to colder-than-average temperatures, it said on Monday.
However, the bank noted that there is “no need for $4 gas just yet”.
“We estimate a much more moderate negative revision to our expected end-October 2025 storage of -124 bcf (to 3,980 Bcf),” the investment bank said in a research note.
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This suggests that new drilling activity in the Haynesville shale, a major gas-producing region, is not needed at this time, the bank noted.
A rare winter storm churned across the US Gulf Coast last week, bringing heavy snow, ice, and wind gusts to a region where flurries are unusual, while much of the United States remained in a deep freeze.
In order to meet record gas demand during extreme cold last week, analysts projected energy firms pulled 317 billion cubic feet (bcf) out of storage during the week ended Jan. 24.
If correct, that would only be the fourth time utilities pulled over 300 bcf of gas from storage in a week, but would fall short of the record 359 bcf withdrawn during a freezing week in January 2018.
“Cold-driven tightening risks to US gas balances have been amplified by even colder-than-expected temperatures in recent weeks,” Goldman Sachs said.
For 2026, Goldman Sachs expects increasing US LNG exports to tighten gas balances, necessitating additional drilling to maintain adequate storage levels for winters.
The bank raised its 2026 gas price forecast to $4.15/MMBtu from $4.00.
Meanwhile, US natural gas futures fell about 8% to a two-week low on Monday.
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