WASHINGTON: U.S. economic growth likely slowed in the fourth quarter as imports surged and a strike at Boeing hurt spending on aircraft, though strong domestic demand will probably keep the Federal Reserve on a shallow interest rate cut path this year.
The advance gross domestic product (GDP) report from the Commerce Department on Thursday is also expected to show consumer spending maintaining a robust pace of growth last quarter. Consumer spending is being underpinned by a resilient labor market, which is churning out solid wage gains.
While the fourth-quarter growth pace would mark a slowdown of the brisk pace notched in the July-September quarter, the economy last year defied dire predictions of a recession that had been fanned by the U.S. central bank hiking rates by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 to quell inflation.
The Fed on Wednesday left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, having reduced it by 100 basis points since September.
It removed a reference to inflation having “made progress” toward the Fed’s 2% inflation goal.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that the economy “is strong overall.” Dissatisfaction with the economy swept President Donald Trump to victory in the Nov. 5 election.
“The economy has done very well,” said Brian Bethune, an Economics professor at Boston College. “Everybody has benefited, to some extent, but there still are some underlying issues in terms of distribution of employment, earnings and wealth.”
GDP likely increased at a 2.6% annualized rate last quarter after accelerating at a 3.1% pace in the July-September quarter, a Reuters survey of economists showed.
Estimates ranged from a 1.7% pace to a 3.2% rate.
The survey was concluded before data on Wednesday showed the goods trade deficit vaulted to a record high in December, which prompted the Atlanta Fed to slash its GDP forecast to a 2.3% rate from an earlier estimate of 3.2%.
Growth for the full year is estimated at 2.8%.
The economy grew 2.9% in 2023. It is expanding well above the 1.8% rate that Fed policymakers view as the non-inflationary growth pace.
The Fed has forecast only two rate cuts this year, down from the four it had projected in September, when it embarked on its policy easing cycle.
Fed holds rates steady, drops reference to inflation ‘progress’ from policy statement
That reflected uncertainty over the economic impact of fiscal, trade and immigration policies from the new Trump administration.
Economists view the planned tax cuts, broad tariffs on imports and mass deportations of undocumented immigrants as inflationary.
They expect economic growth to falter by the second half and inflation to rise.
“Light touch regulation coupled with a low tax environment should, in theory, be supportive for the growth story,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.
“But at the same time … tariffs are going to put up costs for the U.S., especially the consumer, disrupt supply chains as well.
There is going to be a disruptive impact on the U.S. economy that will act as a brake on economic activity.“
Trade, inventory drags
Anticipation of tariffs and a ports strike prompted businesses to front-load imports in November and December, sharply widening the trade deficit, which economists estimated probably subtracted as much as a full percentage point from GDP.
That would stretch the trade drag on GDP to four straight quarters.
Most of the imports were quickly snapped up by consumers who have also been engaged in pre-emptive buying ahead of the tariffs.
That probably meant less inventory was accumulated by businesses relative to the third quarter.
Inventories were likely a drag on GDP for a second consecutive quarter. Trade and inventories are the most volatile components of GDP. They were, however, likely more than offset by brisk consumer spending growth.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, is expected to have retained much of the July-September momentum, when it grew at a 3.7% rate.
A crippling strike by factory workers at Boeing from mid-September through early November, which disrupted production and delivery of aircraft, likely dented business spending on equipment.
That would offset strong growth in outlays on intellectual property products fueled by an artificial intelligence spending boom. Strong aircraft deliveries helped to boost business spending on equipment in the second and third quarter, despite higher borrowing costs constraining manufacturing.
Economists said the focus should be on final sales to private domestic purchasers - which exclude inventories, trade and government - to judge the economy’s health.
This measure of domestic demand is forecast to have grown closer to the third quarter’s 3.4% pace. Inflation likely picked up last quarter.
Residential investment probably rebounded, but rising mortgage rates remain an obstacle. Growth in government outlays was likely moderate, though the outlook is cloudy amid plans by the Trump administration to slash spending.
“I look for the growth rate of real government spending to continue to narrow going forward,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
“Much depends on whether the attempts by the new Trump administration to clamp down on federal spending bear fruit or are stymied by Congress and/or the courts.”
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