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Acreage expansion off the table despite surging palm oil demand

Dr. Rizal Affandi Lukman is the Secretary General of the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC), where he leads initiatives to promote sustainable practices and strengthen collaboration among member nations in the palm oil industry.

Prior to his current role, Dr. Lukman served as the Deputy Minister for International Economic Cooperation at Indonesia’s Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, overseeing the country’s international trade and economic partnerships. His extensive public service includes positions such as Director of Asia Economic & Financial Cooperation and Chairman of the Supervisory Board at PT Perum Peruri.

In the private sector, Dr. Lukman has held significant roles, including Independent Commissioner at PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk and PT Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk, contributing to corporate governance and strategic development.

Dr. Lukman holds a Doctorate from Nagoya University (2000), a master’s degree from the International University of Japan (1993), and a Bachelor’s degree from Institut Teknologi Bandung (1986). His academic background and research have focused on economic development and policy, with notable contributions to understanding inequality in household expenditures in Indonesia.

Earlier this month, he visited Pakistan on the invitation of the edible oil industry. BR Research interviewed Dr. Lukman on the sidelines of the Indonesia-Pakistan Workshop on Sustainable Palm Oil, to discuss the future of the global palm oil industry, international economic cooperation, and sustainable development.

Edited excerpts and a summary of his thoughts are published below:

BR Research (BRR): Indonesia and Malaysia are the world’s dominant palm oil producers, but they are also strong competitors. What led these two countries to collaborate in establishing the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC), and what are the organization’s key objectives?

Rizal Lukman (RL): CPOPC is an intergovernmental organization founded by Malaysia and Indonesia, which together contribute about 82 percent of global palm oil production. Established in November 2015, its primary objective is to enable palm oil-producing countries to collaborate in addressing global challenges, particularly negative perceptions surrounding palm oil.

Critics often associate palm oil with deforestation, environmental degradation, and forest fires, particularly due to land expansion practices in the 1970s–1990s. During that period, palm oil production grew at a rate of about 7 percent annually. However, since the early 2000s, this rate has slowed to around 4 percent, reflecting consolidation rather than further expansion.

In response to sustainability concerns, both Indonesia and Malaysia have implemented strict moratoriums on new plantation expansion from 2010–2011. In addition, national sustainability standards such as ISPO (Indonesia Sustainable Palm Oil) and MSPO (Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil) have been introduced to ensure that palm oil production aligns with environmental and social governance principles.

BRR: The moratorium on palm oil expansion has now been in place for over a decade. Given the increasing global demand for palm oil, does CPOPC believe the moratorium should be lifted under sustainable guidelines?

RL: There are two key strategies we are focusing on to meet demand without expanding plantation land. First, by improving the productivity of smallholders. Many smallholders rely on traditional, non-scientific agricultural practices. By introducing good agricultural practices (GAP), including optimized fertilizer use, irrigation management, and pest control, we can significantly boost yields.

Second, by accelerating the replanting program. Palm oil trees have a 25-year lifecycle, after which productivity declines. In Indonesia alone, smallholders occupy large portions of plantation land, and ideally, 260,000 hectares should be replanted annually to maintain yield efficiency. However, the actual replanting rate is only around 50,000–60,000 hectares per year, which presents a significant challenge. Accelerating replanting efforts is crucial to maintaining supply.

BRR: If replanting efforts accelerate and the average lifecycle of palm oil trees is reduced, wouldn’t this increase the demand for soil nutrients and impact sustainability efforts?

RL: Replanting must be done carefully to balance productivity and sustainability. The key challenge is that only a limited number of smallholders meet the eligibility criteria for replanting programs due to financial and technical barriers. As a result, the replanting rate remains lower than optimal, contributing to stagnating or even declining yields.

To counteract this, we are exploring the conversion of low-yield crops (such as rubber) into palm oil plantations rather than deforesting new land. This approach allows us to sustain palm oil production while adhering to environmental commitments.

BRR: CPOPC has developed various sustainability frameworks, including ISPO, MSPO, and RSPO. How do these national standards align with international sustainability regulations such as the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)?

RL: National sustainability standards are increasingly being integrated with global frameworks. Initially, RSPO (Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil) was a voluntary certification introduced in 2007, which later led to the establishment of ISPO (Indonesia, 2011) and MSPO (Malaysia, 2013) as mandatory national standards.

Currently, CPOPC is working to align ISPO and MSPO with international requirements, including the EUDR. To facilitate broader adoption, CPOPC has developed the General Framework for Sustainable Palm Oil (JFPSPO), which serves as a universal template for sustainable production. This is particularly useful for emerging palm oil producers in Africa, such as Ghana, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which currently lack standardized sustainability frameworks.

BRR: What is the average yield difference between large-scale corporate farms and smallholder plantations?

RL: On average, global palm oil productivity is about 3.2 tons per hectare. However, in some African countries, such as Ghana, the yield is significantly lower, at around 1.5 tons per hectare. CPOPC provides capacity-building programs to improve yields in such regions. Notably, palm oil originates from Africa, so part of our goal is to help African nations regain self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on imports from Indonesia and Malaysia.

BRR: How does CPOPC leverage its collective bargaining power to address trade challenges, such as tariffs and trade restrictions, in key importing destinations such as Pakistan?

RL: CPOPC’s role extends beyond palm oil promotion; we also facilitate dialogues with major consumer markets to ensure fair trade practices. Recognizing the broader global vegetable oil market, CPOPC initiated the Sustainable Vegetable Oil Conference, bringing together stakeholders from the palm, soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed oil sectors. Given that palm oil represents over 40 percent of global vegetable oil consumption, yet uses only 8.2 percent of total agricultural land, our goal is to advocate for fair policies that reflect palm oil’s high efficiency and sustainability potential.

BRR: Does CPOPC support biotech innovations such as hybrid palm varieties or genetically modified (GMO) palm oil for yield improvements?

RL: While biotechnology research is ongoing, CPOPC primarily supports the development of high-yield hybrid varieties rather than GMO-based varieties. Many smallholders still use low-quality seeds, which limits their productivity. By encouraging the adoption of certified, high-yield seeds, we can significantly enhance output without genetic modification.

BRR: In Pakistan, palm oil processing commonly involves hydrogenation, leading to trans-fat concerns. Can CPOPC play a role in advocating for trans-fat-free palm oil in Pakistan?

RL: Yes, CPOPC is actively involved in discussions on palm oil and its health impacts. The key concern in Pakistan is hydrogenation, which increases trans-fat levels and raises cardiovascular health risks. The EU has already set CPD (3-MCPD) limits of 2.5 ppm for industry and 1.25 ppm for final products. Although producers are making progress, further efforts are required.

Educating both consumers and industry stakeholders is critical. We are proposing collaborations with experts from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Pakistan to raise awareness about the health and sustainability aspects of palm oil use.

BRR: What is CPOPC’s stance on biodiesel blending and its feasibility in non-producing countries?

RL: Biodiesel is a promising avenue, but it depends on two key factors. First, the price of crude palm oil (CPO). When CPO prices are high, using palm oil for biodiesel requires government subsidies to remain competitive. Second, national energy policies. In Indonesia, the B35 mandate has gradually increased the proportion of biodiesel blends. However, further adoption in non-producing countries remains uncertain unless production expands.

BRR: Does this mean biodiesel blending is unlikely in non-producing nations unless palm oil production increases?

RL: Exactly. Without increased palm oil production, non-producing nations would face supply shortages and price volatility. Therefore, increasing productivity and ensuring sustainability must go hand in hand.

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