Groping for election date

Once again the government had to say that early election is not being contemplated. Its earlier assertions to this effect had failed, but a firm denial made by Information Minister Kaira after the cabinet meeting on Wednesday, is likely to hold the ground as it sounds plausible if not convincing. According to speculation rife in the Capital over the past one week, the government is all set to hold general election on January 15-16, 2013 - that's two months before the assemblies complete their terms. That there were sudden spurts of activity on the national political landscape is a development that lent a measure of credence to speculation about early election.
The minister is right in contending why his government should go for early election when such a short intervening period is just not enough time to make any meaningful change to ground realities. On the other hand, the cause of democracy would be greatly served if assemblies are allowed to complete their terms - indeed, a rarity in the political history of Pakistan.
Apparently, there is not much of a reason with the political opposition to disagree with Kaira; especially when quite a number of parties may yet not be in their best form to go for election in January 2013. Maybe they would like the government to live long enough to reap the bitter harvest of what they perceive as its colossal governance failure. Then, as some recent high-profile defections/desertions and loyalty conversions suggest the political opposition would like to bide their time to acquire (in some cases lose) more electoral strength. But there are reports, albeit unconfirmed, that the Prime Minister would send to the President his advice to dissolve the assemblies in December with a view to holding general election in March.
Such a strategy the government will employ to dissolve assemblies months before their constitutionally-mandated expiration in mid-March to avoid holding of poll in May - a hot, dry month. Not only will an increasing unpleasant weather of May adversely impact voter turnout at polling booths, a summer-specific surge in power outages will surely hurt its electoral prospects. The question, therefore, is: how can the government take such a risk? However, one can appreciate how people might read into these speculations and unconfirmed reports one way or another being that it is, after all, election season. During this season, every morning brings fresh reports of political actors changing loyalties, often joining their decades-old rivals. The fact is that if at all, time is working against any party it is the PPP; its Punjab chapter is confused following Manzoor Wattoo's elevation as provincial chief. In Sindh, the PPP is beset with schisms in the wake of its understanding with MQM on the local government issue and in the KP, the politics is in ferment in the absence of effective leadership.
Let politicians and their parties have their own agendas on the election timeline; it is their right. But there is also a national perspective on the election timeline and that's focused on the quality of election rather than when should it be held. No doubt the caretaker prime minister, as envisaged by the amended constitutional position, would be better placed to protect sanctity of election and to ensure that it should be an impartial and transparent electoral exercise. He shall be selected by the President "in consultation with the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition in the outgoing National Assembly," a change from the past, and certainly will have its salutary effect on the quality of election. But even more importantly, what would matter more is the capability of the Election Commission to conduct election the outcome of which remains undisputed. The Election Commission is undoubtedly working hard to make certain that the popular will is very aptly reflected through a transparent and well-attended election exercise - though work in two critical areas is still in hand. One, the voter lists have to be as error-free and comprehensive as humanly possible - a task nearly done thanks to Nadra's hard work. Also, should it be legislated that the overseas Pakistanis can vote the Election Commission, which is already in agreement on this issue, will have to undertake the stupendous task of making arrangements to ensure that they not only vote but also have access to the contending parties and their leadership. How to ensure that the women voters can cast their vote in the face of stiff resistance in some parts of Pakistan, that's yet another unfinished task. Two, there is the challenge how to obtain the best-possible ambience in and around the polling stations in order to ensure that polling exercise fits the bill of a fair, free and transparent election. Should the task be handed over to the armed forces, judiciary or local administration, the issue is under discussion. In fact it's not the election date as such, but the quality of election that really matters. Given impatience and intolerance that is so much now a part of our political culture, the upcoming election has to be absolutely free, fair and transparent enough. Given our turbulent political history the alternative would be a lethal blow to the nascent democracy in Pakistan.