LONDON: Cocoa futures on the ICE exchange hit new four-month lows on Tuesday on improved weather prospects in top producer Ivory Coast and reports of increased surplus forecasts for this season.
Cocoa
London cocoa fell 3.6% to 6,297 pounds a metric ton at 1232 GMT, having hit its lowest since early November at 6,291.
Above-average rains mixed with long sunny spells last week across most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa growing regions are expected to improve growing conditions and strengthen the development of the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday.
“Good weather should promote late mid-crop and new crop production. Estimates for Ivory Coast’s mid-crop are currently quite wide, between 300,000 and 400,000 metric tons,” said broker StoneX.
It also reported that consultants TRS by Expana have increased their 2024/25 surplus forecast by 32,000 tons to 77,000 tons, due to an expected drop in the cocoa grind, a measure of demand.
“TRS’ forecast for the 2025/26 season is (for) a 166,000-ton surplus,” noted StoneX.
New York cocoa fell 3.3% to $8,154 a ton.
Cocoa hits 4-month low while raw sugar rallies
Sugar
Raw sugar futures slipped 0.1% to 18.84 cents per lb, having settled up 2.9% on Monday.
Sugar is being driven by diminishing production outlooks in India and Thailand.
On the other hand, concerns over dry weather in Brazil have ameliorated of late, and worries over a late start to the 2025/26 crop have been put to rest as two mills have started harvesting early, dealers said.
“All told, the predominant sentiment remains one of prices trending lower to incentivize demand and constrict supply,” said broker and consultant Michael J Nugent in a report.
White sugar fell 0.3% to $529.70 a ton.
Coffee
Arabica coffee slipped 0.1% to $3.8335 per lb, having gained 3% last week.
Theft of truck loads of green coffee beans is surging in the United States, the world’s largest importer of the commodity, as prices for the beans increased to all-time highs in the last year, according to transportation companies.
Elsewhere, dry conditions in top producer Brazil remain a concern, but these have been priced to an extent and fears are now emerging over the impact of high prices on demand.
Dealers said a big concern at last week’s National Coffee Association conference in Houston was “how much demand will fall in 2025”.
Robusta coffee rose 0.6% to $5,410 a ton.
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