The Uraan Plan: reality check

The Uraan Plan, although ambitiously faulty, is built on some good bones. It introduces the 5E’s framework – exports, e-Pakistan, environment and climate change, energy and infrastructure, and equity, ethics and empowerment.

Credit is due for writing an all-comprehensive plan with every possible solution under the sun for each section. However, as critics will critique, a multi-tiered solution list based on priorities would provide a better outcome.

For exports, the goal set at USD 60 billion is overtly out of touch. According to PBS (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics), the export proceedings from the first 6MFY25 are 11% higher compared to the same period last year.

Based on this, assuming that the same growth is sustained for the rest of the year, Pakistan’s exports for FY25 will be approximately $34.4 billion. And, to reach $60 billion in the next five years, Pakistan’s exports will have to rise by approximately 19% annually.

However, when we look at the past growth trends, this number has only been ball parked twice in the last decade. While Pakistan has deposited some good economic recovery, the industries are still grappling with high energy prices and higher capital costs due to a double-digit policy rate.

Where it was outlandish in setting the export goal, IT and communication targets in the plan have kept their feet on the ground. Analysing Pakistan’s IT export earnings since 2018 shows an average growth rate of 21%, which implies that the country has the potential to reach $5 billion within the allocated time frame.

With a steady growth rate, Pakistan’s IT sector expansion is further solidified by access to affordable internet. A comparison of broadband prices in South Asian countries shows that historically Pakistan’s internet prices have hovered in the middle of the pack. The main challenge in achieving this growth is connectivity.

Since 2024, multiple reports have been made about slow internet speed and connectivity issues. This is a real roadblock as a steady and affordable internet is useless if people are unable to access it.

Pakistan’s goals towards the environment and combatting climate change are essential to the country itself due to its high vulnerability ranking. However, assessing the feasibility of these individual goals is difficult due to limited and fragmented data available on environment parameters.

Despite these challenges, one fact remains clear: Pakistan cannot achieve its climate objectives without significant external financial support.

According to Climate Policy Initiative data, global climate finance has grown in recent years, but the pace of growth is slowing. It was approximately 43% in 2021, 26% in 2022 and 6.2% in 2023. This decline has serious implications for Pakistan, which already struggles with a significant shortfall between its financial requirements and actual funding received.

While this is the case, it is important to recognize that other regional countries, such as India and Bangladesh, are also facing significant challenges in securing international climate finance.

The Uraan report has been spot on when it came to setting targets for building renewable energy (RE) capacity and railway transport; however, they dropped the ball on circular debt. The five-year plan includes the goal of increasing railway passenger transport from 5% to 15% and freight transport from 8% to 25%.

Given the growth rates of freight and passenger transport, achieving the targets set by the plan appears feasible. On a similar trajectory, the target set for renewable energy can also be achieved. Pakistan has been steadily investing in expanding its RE capacity over the last decade. Since 2015, Pakistan’s RE installed capacity has increased by more than 600%. The point of contention lies in slowing down of annual growth rate.

However, when it came to circular debt, the plan seems to have lost the plot. Simply stating ‘reduce circular debt’ is like setting sail without a map — directionless and ineffective.

Studying the underlying causes and setting targets on controlling them would automatically improve circular debt. For example, transmission and distribution losses and impact of low recovery by DISCOs in the past decade have exhibited parallel trends, contributing to the accumulation of circular debt in the system.

The Uraan Plan further targets areas of education, healthcare, empowerment and social inclusion. An important healthcare issue noted by the Uraan Plan is that Pakistan’s healthcare system is facing a shortage of nurses. While observing the change in the nurse-to-doctor ratio over the past years, there has been a slight improvement; however, achieving a 2:1 ratio over the next five years seems unlikely. To achieve this ratio, the government will have to study the lower growth in the number of registered nurses, and identify the causes before it can introduce effective policies to rectify it. The impact of these policies will translate into progress in the long-term.

Perhaps the most unattainable goal set in the plan is expecting Pakistan to achieve a gender parity index score of 1. A perfect gender parity score is an illusion — even top-ranked nations haven’t reached it. In 2004, Iceland was ranked first in World Economic Forum’s Gender Gap Index and it had a score of 0.935.

The same index ranked Pakistan in the lowest ten countries for the last four years. It also reported that Pakistan and Nepal had an adverse impact on South Asia’s index in 2024. So, gaining gender parity index score of 1 is just not a viable option. A more attainable goal that Pakistan should work towards is to be ranked in the middle tier.

Like all development plans, the Uraan Plan does hit the nail on the head when it comes to several points, while it misses the mark on a few. However, also like other plans, its success will be determined by whether the written solutions have any real, impactful application.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025