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India’s benchmark indexes are likely to open higher on Tuesday, tracking their Asian peers on optimism over China’s economy.

The GIFT Nifty futures were at 22,741 as of 08:19 a.m. IST, indicating that the blue-chip Nifty 50 will likely open above Monday’s close of 22,508.75.

China’s retail sales growth accelerated in January-February in relief for policymakers attempting to revive domestic consumption.

Major Asian markets advanced in early trade, with the MSCI Asia ex Japan rising about 1%, amid positive data.

Meanwhile, softer-than-expected retail sales and factory activity figures kept downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, while Wall Street equities closed higher overnight.

However, caution will likely prevail back home due to the looming tariffs, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday and geopolitical risks.

While the Fed is expected to keep key rates unchanged, the focus will be on the central bank’s projections on future rate cuts, growth and inflation expectations as risks of trade war rise, said two analysts.

Indian benchmark indexes are down about 14% from the record highs of September 2024 as earnings growth slowdown and U.S. tariff worries triggered nearly $29 billion in foreign outflows.

Financials lead rise in Indian shares

On Monday, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold Indian shares worth 44.88 billion rupees ($517.7 million), provisional data showed.

U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated that reciprocal tariffs on several trading partners, including India, will be imposed on April 2.

Investors globally are watching geopolitical developments after Israel’s attack on targets across Gaza killed at least 100, ending a weeks-long standoff over extending the ceasefire that halted fighting in January.

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