As Pakistan’s largest reservoirs, Tarbela and Mangla, teeter near dead levels, the nation faces a dual crisis, acute water shortages and a looming wheat harvest disaster.
With Punjab and Sindh the country’s agricultural heartlands warned of 35% water deficits, farmers are urging the government to intervene through incentives, relaxed trade barriers, and export frameworks to salvage the season.
Keeping in mind the historical roots of Pakistan’s water agriculture nexus, the current emergency, we need concrete actionable solutions to avert economic and food security fallout.
Pakistan’s agriculture, contributing 23% to GDP and employing 37% of the labour force, hinges on the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS). Built in the 1960s and 1970s, respectively, Mangla and Tarbela dams revolutionized water storage, enabling the Green Revolution that turned Pakistan into a regional breadbasket.
However, decades of mismanagement, siltation, and climate pressures have eroded their capacity. Tarbela, designed to hold 11.62 million acre-feet, now loses 0.2 MAF annually to sedimentation. Similarly, Mangla’s storage has dwindled by 19% since its 1967 inception.
Wheat, a staple covering 40% of cultivated land, remains politically sensitive. Past governments oscillated between export bans and import subsidies to control prices, often at farmers’ expense. In 2020, a record harvest of 27.5 million tons led to export caps to curb inflation, leaving growers stranded with surplus stocks. Such policies, coupled with erratic water flows, have perpetuated cycles of debt and distrust among rural communities.
IRSA anticipates both reservoirs could hit dead levels, forcing Punjab and Sindh to rely solely on river inflows. This spells disaster for the (Rabi) season’s wheat crop, which requires 4-5 waterings. Already, 2023-24 saw 15% lower sowing in Punjab due to delayed irrigation and policy uncertainty. With the crop now in grain filling, stage.
A period demanding ample water 35% shortage could slash yields by 20% as per the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC) sources. In this alarming situation the most affected is farmer, who is demanding the increase in wheat support price to 4,200 per 40kg to offset rising fertilizer approximately (up 45% since 2022) and diesel costs.
If we compare price tag with India’s only we can easily assess the magnitude of financial cut and cost our farmer has to face. Urea costs Rs 4,400 per 50 kg bag, while in our neighboring country growers get the quantity at PKR Rs.1,200 only. Farmers’ demand of cut in price makes sense.
On the other hand, expedite procurement via PASSCO, which purchased only 1.8 million tons of the 7.4 million tons target in 2023. To secure and fetch the money they invested in sowing wheat is actually needed is the need for abolishing transport restrictions of wheat that stifle supply chains.
In 2022, Punjab’s ban on wheat movement to Sindh caused prices to spike by 30% in Karachi. Allow controlled exports to capitalize on global wheat prices, which soared to $330/ton in 2023 (World Bank).
Neighboring India ‘restricted’ exports, creating a regional deficit that Pakistan could fill. Accelerate dam projects like Diamer-Bhasha and enhance canal linings to reduce 60% water wastage in IBIS. Experts believe water scarcity isn’t new, but this year’s convergence of low storage and policy inertia could be catastrophic.
Procurement delays force farmers to sell to middlemen at 30% below market rates. Permitting interprovincial trade and exports would empower growers while stabilizing prices.
Pakistan’s wheat crisis underscores a systemic failure, from water infrastructure to market access. While immediate measures like procurement hikes and trade liberalization can mitigate losses, long-term solutions demand investment in drip irrigation, reservoir upgrades, and farmer-centric policies. As global wheat demand climbs, Pakistan’s choice is clear: empower its growers or risk food insecurity in a climate constrained future. The time to act is now.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
The writer is an agro scientist
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