TRG Pakistan shares may drop to Rs64-68 per share post Greentree’s tender: report

A research firm has projected that TRG Pakistan’s share price may fall in the range of Rs64-68 per share after the purchase of the company’s shares by Greentree Holdings Limited pursuant to a tender offer at a price of Rs75 per share at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

A court stay on the Greentree Holdings tender was vacated after the Islamabad High Court dismissed a shareholder petition seeking to restrain Greentree from purchasing shares of TRG Pakistan. In a revised timetable submitted to PSX earlier today, Greentree has announced an open period for the tender from 25th March to 4th April 2025.

“We estimate TRG Pakistan’s post-tender NAV (net asset value) at Rs 64-68 per share, factoring in remaining cash reserves and the marketability of illiquid assets,” KTrade Research said in a recent commentary titled ’ TRG Pakistan: Greentree Holdings’ Tender Offer for TRG Pakistan’.

KTrade Research has calculated the post-tender market share price at Rs64-68 per share through evaluating TRG Pakistan assets, including hard cash available to it and its remaining investments in Ibex and Afiniti at present.

The research house estimated TRG Pakistan’s assets at “$34 million (assumption - not considering any legal or other administrative expenses).”

Greentree Holdings is an international holding company that manages the proceeds of the monetisation of the operating assets of TRG. It has offered to purchase an additional 35.1% stakes of TRG Pakistan at the offered price of Rs75 per share, taking its total shareholding in the company to around 64.8%.

TRG Pakistan announces completion of Afiniti’s recapitalisation

Greentree offered to purchase TRG Pakistan stock through a the tender offer, aiming to share liquidity of over $52 million that TRG has earned through selling its stakes in Ibex – a company listed on the Nasdaq stock market in the US.

“[This] is a continuation of the return of monetisation proceeds to TRG Pakistan shareholders with $86 million of share purchases by Greentree in 2022 from the proceeds of the eTelequote sale,” KTrade Research added.

Only those shareholders are eligible to sell their shares to Greentree who appeared in TRG Pakistan book as of the close of trading on February 21, 2025.

“Post-book closure, the trading price of TRG Pakistan shares should reflect net asset value (NAV) rather than the tender price as any shares purchased after book closure would not be tender eligible,” KTrade Research further said.

TRG Pakistan’s stock price closed at Rs70.31 per share on Wednesday (March 19, 2025), increasing by 5.54% or Rs3.69 on a day-to-day basis with a turnover of 28.32 million shares at the bourse.

Greentree Holdings looks to tender for 35% shares in TRG Pakistan

According to the report, TRG has been successful in generating excellent returns from two of its portfolio companies: eTelequote and Ibex, with these two assets alone yielding a 5x return on total US dollar capital deployed.

“But it is also a story of missed opportunities of the potential of Afiniti due to declines in SaaS industry valuations, over-leverage and the exit of its CEO and co-founder.”

Following the former CEO’s exit, the report added, there continue to be shareholder disputes, the uncertainty of which has led to insufficient value realisation for shareholders.

“We think the tender could be a good opportunity for exit for those investors who do not have the patience to wait for the resolution of the legal issues.”

Market participants will be closely watching how the tender offer unfolds and whether Greentree Holdings’ expanded control will lead to strategic shifts within TRG Pakistan.