SAO PAULO: Brazilian farmers, who have harvested most of their soybean fields across the nation, are set to produce 165.9 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season, 2.3 million tons less than previously forecast, consultancy AgRural said on Monday.
AgRural said that a drought in southern Brazil, impacting mainly Rio Grande do Sul state, has affected the supply outlook in the country, the world’s biggest producer and exporter of the oilseed.
Rio Grande do Sul’s crop is now seen reaching 15 million tons, a cut of 3 million tons compared to a February forecast, and fresh downward revisions are possible as dry and hot weather persists in the region. “We see reports of significant drops in yields,” AgRural analyst Alaide Ziemmer said. “Fresh cuts may happen. When we made the forecast on March 17, the expectation for some areas was that it would rain, and it did not.”
Ziemmer noted, however, that potential downward revisions to production in Grande do Sul - where the quality of grains has also been a concern - would not prevent Brazil from harvesting a record crop this season.
The forecast reductions have been mitigated by Mato Grosso’s performance, as Brazil’s top grain producing state has been favored by positive weather conditions this season.
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