Pakistan’s water crisis: rethinking crop choices to save water

Pakistan, once water-abundant and home to one of the world’s largest irrigation systems, now faces a severe water crisis.

Decades of mismanagement, outdated farming practices, poor crop selection, and political inertia have led to rapid groundwater depletion in Punjab and widespread waterlogging in Sindh.

While provinces argue over water allocation, the real issue – inefficient water use – remains largely ignored. With agriculture consuming over 90% of the nation’s water, immediate action is needed to prevent mass displacement, food shortages, and economic collapse.

The crisis is not due to scarcity but poor management. The Indus Basin, one of the world’s largest river systems, receives around 140 million acre-feet (MAF) of water annually. However, Pakistan can store only 10% of this flow – far below the global average of 40%. A stark comparison with India highlights this failure.

Under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan received the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), with about 140 MAF of water, while India was allocated the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej). Yet, India has developed reservoirs storing 18.5 MAF, while Pakistan has managed only 13.6 MAF despite having far greater river flows.

The 1991 Water Accord, meant to ensure fair distribution, exacerbated tensions because allocations were made without first developing adequate storage. Without reservoirs, even available water goes to waste, fueling interprovincial disputes. Meanwhile, agriculture remains highly inefficient.

Flood irrigation, the dominant method, wastes over 50% of water. Most farmers still use traditional watering techniques, leading to further losses.

Punjab, Pakistan’s agricultural heartland is running out of groundwater. Farmers extract around 50 MAF annually, mostly for water-thirsty crops like rice and sugarcane. As a result, the water table drops by over a meter each year, bringing Punjab closer to the fate of Balochistan, where unchecked groundwater depletion has left farmers without irrigation and households without drinking water.

A World Bank report warns that groundwater depletion will be a major obstacle to Pakistan’s goal of achieving upper-middle-income status. While new reservoirs are often discussed, the country’s largest reservoir – its underground aquifer – is being depleted at an alarming rate.

One key reason for Punjab’s water crisis is the expansion of sugarcane cultivation. Before the 1980s, sugarcane played a minor role in Punjab’s economy. Historically, sugar mills were concentrated in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where irrigation networks from the Sukkur Barrage, Kotri Barrage, and Kabul River supported early sugarcane farming.

Today, Punjab dominates sugarcane cultivation despite severe groundwater depletion and unsuitability for water-intensive crops. Punjab continues dedicating vast land and groundwater to sugarcane, a practice that must end for sustainable agriculture.

Crop zoning must become a cornerstone of agricultural policy. Without immediate intervention, Punjab’s groundwater resources will become unsalvageable, leading to an agricultural and economic disaster.

While Punjab suffers from water shortages, Upper Sindh faces the opposite problem: waterlogging and salinity. Excessive irrigation, poor drainage, and leaky canals have caused the water table to rise dangerously close to the surface.

Over 50% of irrigated land is now either waterlogged or saline, making once-fertile farmland useless. Despite this, Upper Sindh continues cultivating water-intensive crops like sugarcane and rice. The province lacks the drainage infrastructure needed to manage excess irrigation, leading to worsening conditions.

Meanwhile, Lower Sindh faces another crisis: seawater intrusion. The Indus no longer delivers enough freshwater downstream, shrinking the once-thriving Indus Delta and accelerating land loss. Sensible crop choices and improved water management could ease waterlogging in Upper Sindh while ensuring sufficient freshwater flow to the delta.

To balance agricultural output with water conservation, Pakistan must implement a strict crop zoning policy. Crops should be assigned based on regional water availability and climate conditions. Northern Punjab should focus on rain-fed crops such as millet, sorghum, lentils, chickpeas, olives, and barley. Central Punjab should primarily grow wheat, maize, potato, mustard, and canola, with strict limits on rice and sugarcane. Southern Punjab should emphasize cotton, sunflower, dates, mangoes, citrus, and pulses while phasing out sugarcane.

Western Punjab should focus on oilseeds, fodder crops, pulses, and drought-resistant grains like sorghum. In Sindh, Upper Sindh should shift from sugarcane and rice to sunflower, mustard, canola, cotton, pulses, sorghum, and fodder crops.

Lower Sindh should concentrate on salt-tolerant crops like date palms, millet, barley, moringa, guar, and oilseeds.

To successfully transition away from water-intensive crops, the government must adopt a phased and incentive-driven approach tailored to each region’s water availability and climate conditions.

Farmers should be provided with cash incentives and subsidies for shifting to low-water crops, along with a minimum support price for alternative crops.

Market development strategies must be implemented to strengthen supply chains and processing industries.

Water regulations must include well licensing and metering for tube wells, tiered water pricing to discourage waste, and the use of satellite imagery and sensors to monitor water usage.

Modernizing irrigation through subsidized drip and sprinkler systems is essential, and flood irrigation must be gradually banned in water-stressed areas. Crop zoning laws must be strictly enforced, with better access to credit for farmers who comply.

Additionally, nationwide training programmes and pilot farms demonstrating modern irrigation techniques should be introduced to educate farmers on the benefits of alternative crops.

Pakistan’s water crisis is man-made, and the time for action is now. By embracing agricultural reforms, modernizing irrigation systems, and strengthening governance, Pakistan can secure its water future. Delays will only lead to catastrophic consequences. The choice is simple: reform now or face an irreversible crisis.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025