ISLAMABAD: The country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) posted a growth of 1.73 percent during the 2nd quarter of 2025 against the 0.42 percent upward revision in the first quarter - to 1.34 percent from 0.92 percent in an earlier calculation.
The GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is lower than the 1.77 percent recorded in the second quarter of last year.
The 112th meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC) chaired by Secretary, Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives (MPD&SI) approved the updated growth rate of GDP during Q1 and provisional growth rate during Q2 fiscal year 2024-25.
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has compiled the revised Q1 estimates (July-September) for financial year 2024-25. The results reflect a growth of 1.34 percent as compared to 0.92 percent in Q1 of 2024-25 estimated in December 2024 — a steep fall from 2.46 percent recorded in the same period last year.
The updated growth in agriculture has declined to 0.74 percent from 1.15 percent mainly due to downward revision in other crops (from 2.08 percent to 0.43 percent due to decrease in production of green fodder (-1.9 percent) and forestry (from 0.78 percent to -2.07 percent).
The rate of contraction in industry declined from 1.03 percent to 0.66 percent due to improvement in electricity, gas & water supply (from 0.58 percent to 1.37 percent) and construction (from -14.91 to -11.71 percent).
The mining and quarrying industry witnessed downward revisions from -6.49 percent to -8.06 percent due to decline in production of coal (-2.08 percent), limestone (- 8.01 percent) and other minerals (-5.47 percent).
Despite downward revisions in finance & insurance (from 1.14 percent to -0.28 percent), improvement in transport (from -0.07 percent to 0.16 percent), public administration & social security (from -4.49 percent to 4.40 percent), education (from 2.03 percent to 4.76 percent) and health (from 5.60 percent to 6.70 percent) improved overall growth of services from 1.43 percent to 2.21 percent.
The economy posted a growth of 1.73 percent during Q2 of fiscal year 2024-25. The growth in agriculture, industry and services stand at 1.10 percent, -0.18 percent and 2.57 percent respectively.
During Q2, crops have contracted by 5.38 percent. The contraction of 7.65 percent in important crops is due to reduction in production of cotton (-30.7 percent from 10.22 to 7.084 million bales), maize (-15.4 percent from 9.74 to 8.24 million tons), rice (-1.4 percent from 9.86 to 9.72 million tons), and sugarcane (-2.3 percent from 87.64 to 85.62 million tons).
The wheat crop, which has no impact in Q1, has shown a decline of -6.8 percent in area as compared to last year. High base of 2023-24 has also resulted in decline in growth of important crops. Other crops have shown a modest growth of 0.73 percent due to increase in area of potatoes (14.2 percent).
Livestock has increased by 6.51 percent as compared to 2.96 percent in Q2 last year mainly because of low base and partly due to decline in intermediate consumption i.e. dry and green fodders. Forestry has declined by 0.64 percent due to lower production in KP and fishing industry has witnessed modest growth of 0.79 percent.
The rate of contraction in industry has slowed from 1.81 percent in 2023-24Q2 to 0.18 percent in 2024-25Q2. Mining and quarrying industry has contracted by 3.29 percent due to low quarterly production of mining products e.g. coal (-6.34 percent), gas (-6.16 percent) and crude oil (-11.4 percent) provided by the sources.
The LSM, driven by Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM), has declined by 2.86 percent due to negative contributions from sugar (-12.63 percent), cement (-1.82 percent), and iron & steel (-17.86 percent) during October-December.
The electricity, gas and water supply industry has posted a growth of 7.71 percent due to increase in output of gas as well as decline in deflator.
The construction industry, estimated on the basis of production of construction inputs, has declined by 7.14 percent mainly due to reduction in production of cement (-1.82 percent) and iron & steel (-17.86 percent).
Despite contraction in wholesale & retail trade (-1.13 percent due to decline in output of LSM and imports), the services have grown by 2.57 percent as compared to 1.32 percent in Q2 last year. Transportation & storage industry has grown by 1.15 percent due to increase in output of road transport, air transport, and water transport.
The slowdown in CPI-based inflation has resulted in positive contributions in real value added of industries primarily compiled at current prices including information and communication (8.45 percent), finance & insurance (10.21 percent), public administration & social security (9.10 percent), public sector education (4.80 percent) and health (6.60 percent).
Further, positive contributions have also been registered in accommodation and food services (4.45 percent), real estate activities (4.12 percent), and other private services (3.14 percent).
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Comments