PARIS: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is taking advantage of Europe’s unwillingness to antagonise its NATO ally at a time of international uncertainty and American disengagement as he presses on with a crackdown in the wake of the arrest of a political rival.
Europe, analysts say, is eager to secure Turkish cooperation in a coalition to protect Ukraine after any settlement with Russia and is acutely aware Turkey is now the key player in Syria after the toppling of Bashar al-Assad.
The United States under President Donald Trump is unlikely to show interest in Turkish domestic affairs as Washington focuses on securing an end of the fighting between Russia and Ukraine, ending any threat from Iran and ultimately countering China.
Foreign ministries of European countries, including France and Germany, have condemned the March 19 arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan’s chief domestic opponent, but have not evoked any potential consequences. The US, meanwhile, has been largely silent.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is to meet US counterpart Marco Rubio later Tuesday, while a Turkish representative is also expected at a Paris summit on Ukraine on Thursday.
“Erdogan has read the geopolitical moment rather well,” Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, told AFP.
“The Trump administration has little interest in values-based foreign policy and Europeans need Turkey to stabilise Syria and to achieve a sustainable European security architecture after the war in Ukraine,” she said.
“There is little appetite for a spat with Erdogan,” she added.
Marc Pierini, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, added that Erdogan had picked “the perfect moment of opportunity” from his point of view for the arrest of his main rival and to crack down on the ensuing protests.
Britain and France are leading efforts to form a so-called coalition of the willing of countries willing to assist Ukraine by sending hardware and even troops, with Turkey a key partner due to its large military, world-class drone production and rare position of cordial ties with both Kyiv and Moscow.
“This is potentially his (Erdogan’s) return to the international stage, playing a big role thanks to Turkey’s solid and flexible defence industry,” Pierini told AFP.
“In this context, Erdogan is counting on western Europe’s silence on rule of law and — so far — has obtained it.”
Imamoglu, elected mayor in 2019 and re-elected last year, was seen as by far the biggest domestic rival to Erdogan, with analysts outside Turkey in no doubt that his incarceration was approved by the president.
Vast crowds have poured into the streets of Istanbul and other cities to protest against his arrest but the police have responded with pepper spray, water cannons and rubber bullets. Over 1,000 people have been arrested including journalists, among them an AFP reporter.
‘Free pass’ from US
But whereas the former administration of Joe Biden was constantly upbraiding Turkey on human rights issues, US officials under Trump have been wary of offering any criticism of Erdogan whom the current US president in 2019 described as “a hell of a leader”.
Questioned about Imamoglu’s arrest, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said that Washington was “not going to comment on the internal decision-making of another country” while it expects “them (Turkey) to behave in a manner that respects the rights of all of its citizens”.
“Basically, the State Department practically gave Erdogan a free pass. Any change in Turkey will come from within, if it comes from anywhere,” said Dorothee Schmid of the Turkey and Middle East Programme at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).
Meanwhile Europeans are rushing to catch up with Trump’s rapid upending of the global agenda, with Turkey now also the key powerbroker in Syria after the Assad regime was toppled by pro-Ankara Islamists.
Europe long dangled the carrot of EU membership in front of Turkey, a prospect that Ankara eagerly sought in the early years of Erdogan’s quarter-century rule. But this is no longer seen as realistic in the near term, especially with the focus on a fast-track membership for Ukraine.
“The Europeans have no leverage over Turkey domestically, in my opinion,” Schmid added.
Imamoglu is also not the only opponent of Erdogan to languish in prison — charismatic Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas has been jailed since 2016 and the philanthropist Osman Kavala since 2017. Ankara has ignored rulings from the European Court of Human Rights they should be freed as their cases were politically motivated.
“It is a moment in history when democratic values can easily be crushed under the hard geopolitical realities of the day. Sadly, Turkey will neither be the first nor the last to experience this,” said Aydintasbas.
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