LONDON: World cocoa, coffee and sugar prices recovered on Friday but were headed for sharp weekly falls as investors continue to fear a global recession sparked by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs.
Trump said Wednesday he would pause his planned tariffs for 90 days, leaving them at “just” 10% for all countries except China. The world’s second largest economy currently faces tariffs of 145% effectively, and has retaliated with its own 125% duties on US imports.
London cocoa futures traded on the ICE exchange and seen as a global price benchmark rose 2.2% to 6,125 pounds a metric ton by 1108 GMT, but headed for weekly falls of nearly 4%. New York cocoa rose 2.5% to $8,322 a ton, but headed for weekly falls of nearly 3%.
“Tariffs are bad not good. The uncertainty alone leads to an economic slowdown. (Investors) will just sit and wait (and) consumers will eat less chocolate and drink less coffee,” said a cocoa and coffee consultant. Top cocoa producer Ivory Coast said it could take measures to make the bean more expensive if Trump’s plans for a 21% tariff on Ivorian goods goes into effect. Ivory Coast can not set the global cocoa price but it can raise export taxes. Cocoa investors were already concerned about a downturn in demand thanks to high prices prior to the Trump tariffs.
Barry Callebaut, whose ingredients are used in one out of four chocolate and cocoa products consumed worldwide, on Thursday posted a 4.7% sales volume decline for the first six months of the year to August 31 and forecast a mid-single digit full-year sales volumes drop.
Robusta coffee futures were up 0.8% to $4,937 a metric ton, but headed for weekly falls of 4.5%, while arabica coffee futures were up 0.1% at $3.4225 per lb, but headed for weekly falls of nearly 6%. BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said it sees downside risk to coffee demand due to US tariffs, but raised its full year arabica forecast to $3.40 per lb from $2.40 on an expected production falls in top producers Brazil and Vietnam.
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