Prices for US Treasuries jumped on Thursday after a strong sale of 30-year debt underscored demand spurred by the looming "fiscal cliff" and fears about the euro zone debt crisis. In its final refunding auction of the week, the US Treasury sold $16 billion of 30-year bonds at a high yield of 2.82 percent. "The bond auction came strongly through, with impressive stats across the board," Nomura analysts wrote in a note to clients.
At 2.77, the bid-to-cover ratio was the highest since December, with indirect bidders at the highest since April 2011. "The fact that this demand was led by indirects ... leads us to believe that foreign accounts have finally started buying the long end in preparation for the fiscal cliff and as a hedge for continued euro zone worries," they wrote.
"Alternately this could reflect fast-money asset allocation type flows, similar to late-2011," they added, grading the auction "A". Key US stock indexes also sank as investors turned from riskier assets such as equities. The Standard & Poor's 500 closed more than 1 percent down at its lowest since August 2.
US 30-year bonds turned around earlier losses to jump 1-18/32 and yield 2.751 percent, from 2.829 percent on Wednesday. Prices for 10-year notes also pared losses to gain, up 8/32 to yield 1.618 percent, compared to 1.644 percent on Wednesday. The Fed's late morning purchase of $4.893 billion in coupons with maturities ranging from November 15, 2020 to August 15, 2022 was also supportive for Treasuries prices.
The Federal Reserve is currently buying about 92 percent of new issuance in the long end in its "Operation Twist" monetary stimulus program, said Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Justin Lederer in New York. That program is due to end next month, but many market participants believe the Fed will announce more Treasury purchases at the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's monetary policy-making arm.
"The 30-year, like every other sector of the curve, has been stuck in an extremely tight range since mid-September," Lederer noted, its yield moving between 2.77 and 3.02 percent. "We do not expect this range to break significantly in the near term," he said.
President Barack Obama's election victory on Tuesday supported bonds amid expectations for modest economic growth and accommodative, bond-friendly monetary policy. But financial markets wonder if the White House and Congress will be able to mitigate the potential damage of a $600 billion package of automatic tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect early in the new year.
"A Democratic president and Republican House will need to come together to deal with the nation's fiscal health," said Zach Pandl, strategist at Columbia Management in Minneapolis. "Having the election over is a relief, but investors still need to see a favorable resolution of the fiscal cliff before taking a more optimistic view on the US economy," he said. Concern about the European debt crisis also supported Treasuries.
Comments
Comments are closed.