Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf, while addressing a luncheon he hosted for the participants of the sixth conference of the Association of Saarc Speakers, stated that "we are committed to going the extra mile to make Saarc an effective and productive organisation that is beneficial to all South Asian countries." This is a ground-breaking statement which not only acknowledges that there is considerable potential to enhance economic co-operation within the regional countries that would be a win-win situation for all but that the major impediment to the realisation of this objective remains Pakistan-India rivalry and Pakistan is willing to go to some lengths to end this rivalry.
The Pakistan government has already decided to grant Most Favoured Nation status to India by this year's end and envisages barring import of only 1209 items from India, which would go a long way in strengthening the economic ties of the two countries. And there is talk of facilitating visas for business people of the two countries coupled with the momentous decision by both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to allow two banks each from both the countries to begin full banking operations across the border. In short, the two countries are on a path towards enhanced economic co-operation.
The critical question is the willingness of India to reciprocate the Prime Minister's sentiment on matters other than economic. There have been numerous bilateral talks at various levels focused on confidence-building measures (CBMs) between the two countries on all the irritants: from Kashmir to Sir Creek to Siachen to adhering to the Indus Water Treaty to ensure that India as the upper riparian country does not unfairly use the water supply of the eastern rivers. Independent analysts point out to India's continued hegemonistic designs in the region as a major stumbling block to an economically active Saarc. There is little doubt that there are a number of irritants on which agreement was almost reached but then India backed down notably on Sir Creek, a 60-mile-long estuary separating Indian Gujarat from Sindh. Siachen, one of the most inhospitable regions of the world, continues to witness casualties by the armies of the two countries not due to skirmishes but due to appallingly poor weather conditions. One would hope that common sense would prevail and India and Pakistan would agree to either occupy the glacier on a six-monthly basis or camp at the bottom of the glacier on their side of the border.
To further muddy the waters of the already strained relations between the two countries India, post-Mumbai attack on 26/11/2008, unfairly accused Pakistan of providing official support for cross-border terrorism. Interior Minister Rehman Malik has, in turn, accused India of supporting the Balochistan insurgency but has not provided any conclusive proof to merit an official clarification from the Indian side. Additionally, Pakistan's legitimate defence that in terms of lives lost and assets destroyed it is much more of a victim of terrorism than India, rather than its sponsor, have fallen on deaf ears in India.
On the sidelines of the 16th NAM summit end August 2012 Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai revealed to the media that the Indian Prime Minister "underlined [India's] terrorism-related concerns. He pressed for an expeditious conclusion in 26/11 trial and said action taken in this sphere [terrorism] would be a major CBM." To add further fuel to the fire, India's army chief VK Singh, not a decision-maker but certainly a key stakeholder, recently stated that Pakistan and China are major irritants for India and clarified that "threats from Pakistan were caused by its governance problems and support to terror outfits." Pakistan's governance problems are not likely to impact on Indo-Pak relations and the Indian government would do well to focus on the unanimity of views amongst all the major political parties of the country to enhance ties with India.
One would hope that India abandons its traditional confrontational stance with respect to Pakistan. It is extremely doubtful if the two rivals would engage in a war given their nuclear capability and India must understand that the way forward is through greater engagement with Pakistan rather than continuing to arrest or stall the implementation of agreements reached.
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